Kentucky Derby 2018 Daily: Instilled Regard’s options open

Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily, which will each day leading up to the May 5 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space.

Soon after Instilled Regard stormed to victory in Fair Grounds’ Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes, connections suggested they'd ship back for the next stop there on the 2018 Kentucky Derby trail.

Where we'll see the Jerry Hollendorfer trainee run again is unknown at this point following the Grade 2 Risen Star, in which Instilled Regard ran fourth by 2 1/4 lengths.

“I’m not an excuse maker, but the speed didn’t come back that day,” Hollendorfer said. “That’s just the break we got — an entirely different situation than the last time we were there.”

With the Arch colt now No. 6 on the Derby leader board with 19 qualifying points, his next prep — or preps — remains undetermined. Signaling he could be ready to run again soon, Instilled Regard worked a half mile Sunday at Santa Anita Park, just eight days after the Risen Star.

An on-the-board finish in any of the remaining Derby trail races should be enough to qualify Instilled Regard, a $1 million purchase campaigned by OXO Equine.

“We’re not worried about anything,” Hollendorfer said. “If we make the Derby, that would be great. If we don’t, we’ll make another plan.

In other news for Hollendorfer-trained contenders, Kanthaka, who won the one-turn San Vicente last month at Santa Anita Park, won’t ship as planned for Aqueduct’s Grade 3 Gotham Stakes. The Daily Racing Form reported he’ll stay in California for the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes on March 10, when Bolt d’Oro will make his return to the races.

More on the big race

With the field set for Saturday’s Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park — champion Good Magic’s season debut — it’s time to get to handicapping.

Full-Field Analysis | Free Past Performances | Picks

Will he stretch out?

That’s the question handicappers would like an answer to before Strike Power breaks as a potential second choice in the Fountain of Youth.

This weekend’s Derby prep marks the latest instance in which a winner of the one-turn Swale Stakes over the Gulfstream dirt tries to route next out. Data provided this week by Churchill Downs shows that in the last 20 years, only 2000 Swale winner Trippi won a two-turn race in his follow-up, the Flamingo Stakes.

Seven others have attempted a similar pattern since then, with two in the Fountain of Youth. Adore the Gold ran fourth in 2007 and Awesome Banner fifth in 2016.

“Good Magic is a proven champion and [Strike Power] is giving away an experience edge to basically everyone again, as he did in the Swale,” said trainer Mark Hennig. “That’s a concern always. Horses get better with experience, but we need to find out if we’re heading on that road.

“It’s not even necessarily a win as getting a great effort around two turns that we’re looking for to continue forward.”

Romans talks trio of contenders

Trainer Dale Romans feels Free Drop Billy’s runner-up effort in the Grade 2 Holy Bull validates the thinking that his off-the-board Breeders’ Cup Juvenile effort was simply a fluke. How else to explain a last-out Grade 1 winner completely failing to fire?

“He trained so well up to the Breeders’ Cup too, so we didn’t know what we have,” Romans said. “He stepped up and showed us that something was wrong that day that we probably will never know.”

So, back in the Fountain of Youth, Free Drop Billy sits the third choice on the morning line, with Romans adding that “his numbers actually moved forward to an all-time top” despite finishing behind Audible in the Holy Bull.

Romans will also saddle recent Gulfstream allowance winner Storm Runner and Promises Fulfilled, who was third last out in November’s Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs.

Derby links

• Both of this week’s European Road to the Derby races were postponed due to the “Beast of the East” snowstorm making its way through the continent. But with races pushed back to next week, how does that affect Triple Crown nominees Mendelssohn and Gronkowski? We’ve got the details. 

• An in-depth piece published by BloodHorse examines the rich pedigree sported by Avery Island, the Grade 3 Withers winner who’s likely to race just once more before the first Saturday in May, in the Louisiana Derby.

• Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas has a trio of horses in his barn he’s conditioning for Derby preps and sees each of them as legitimate prospects. “So,” he said, “we’ll treat them that way and let them disappoint us.”

In case you missed it…

Wednesday’s Derby Daily report examined how Good Magic’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile effort stands up against the races run since on the trail. Spoiler alert: pretty good.

• Catch up with all the latest Derby news by reading past editions of HRN’s Derby Daily report.