Kentucky Derby 2018 Daily: San Felipe, Good Magic insights
Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily, which will each day leading up to the May 5 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space.
Among comments from 27 voters in a newly released Kentucky Derby Media Poll, one mentioned the Tampa Bay Derby. A couple noted the Gotham Stakes. But it’s apparent most eyes Saturday will be on the San Felipe Stakes.
Art Wilson, of the Southern California News Group, labeled the showdown between the two-top-ranked horses, McKinzie and Bolt d’Oro, as “the top Derby prep to date.” The New York Racing Association’s Maggie Wolfendale noted, “There certainly haven’t been any superstars yet, but it is still early. With Good Magic disappointing, it leaves the door wide open.” And BloodHorse’s Steve Haskin hopes the next round of preps “can provide some much-needed clarity to the Derby picture.”
“First start or not, that was a ho-hum return for Good Magic, and he might ultimately prefer middle distances anyway,” said Churchill Downs track announcer Travis Stone.
Horse Racing Nation’s Brian Zipse pointed out that “maybe we should not be too surprised that a champion with only a single career win was beaten.”
Most aren’t giving up on the Curlin colt, who’s trained by Chad Brown, broke his maiden in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and should re-appear April 7 in Keeneland’s Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes.
“Good Magic clearly needed the race off the layoff and will move forward in a big way off that effort — essentially the same pattern that led to his ‘two prep' journey on the way to that huge Breeder's Cup Juvenile victory,” said Horse Racing Nation’s Mike Shutty, author of the Super Screener handicapping tool.
Added TVG’s Britney Eurton: “I won't jump off the bandwagon just yet. But if nothing else, that performance draws even more attention toward this week's San Felipe and the comeback of Bolt d’Oro."
Sorting out the Bafferts
A day after trainer Baffert confirmed it’ll be McKinzie for the San Felipe and Solomini traveling for the Grade 2 Rebel March 17 at Oaklawn Park, the Daily Racing Form’s Jay Privman reported on destinations for the barn’s other Kentucky Derby prospects.
Restoring Hope, the recent maiden winner who Baffert said was ready for deeper waters, is likely to join his stablemate in the San Felipe. While it seems two from the barn will go there, Santa Anita’s stakes coordinator has been told a third — Nero, Ax Man? — could also be candidates.
Justify, the impressive maiden winner going seven furlongs, remains pointed to the Grade 3 Sunland Derby on March 25. Per Privman, he could be joined by Smarty Jones Stakes Mourinho, who set the pace but faded to fourth last out in Oaklawn Park’s Southwest Stakes over a muddy track.
Derby links
• BloodHorse’s Frank Angst looked at how Kentucky Derby qualifying points can make or break a race, with Turfway Park’s Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks (formerly the Spiral) the latest example. “The race offered a chance for turf 3-year-olds to try Turfway's synthetic surface, a switch not as dramatic as a move to dirt,” Angst wrote with the number of points awarded fewer this year than in the past.
• Taking a deeper dive into last Saturday’s Fountain of Youth Stakes, HRN’s Reinier Macatangay surmised that pace made the race when it comes to Promises Fulfilled. “Three races earlier,” he pointed out, “maidens went .21 seconds faster at the half” than they let Promises Fulfilled get it at Gulfstream Park.
• Bolt d’Oro put in his final work Monday toward the showdown with McKinzie in the San Felipe and had Triple Crown-winning jockey Victor Espinoza aboard. Said Espinoza: “He’s ready to go. I’m impressed with how much he’s improved since the last time I worked him.” Thanks to Santa Anita, we’ve got a full recap from the breeze.
The works
Bravazo — In his second move back from winning the Grade 2 Risen Star, he got five furlongs Monday at Oaklawn Park in 1:01.80 (4/8) for trainer D. Wayne Lukas, who has the Awesome Again colt ticketed for a return to Fair Grounds in the March 24 Louisiana Derby.
Greyvitos — The multiple stakes winner is on the return from surgery to remove knee chips and targeting a potential return race the weekend of April 14, the final round of Derby preps. Stretching from three furlongs last week to four on Monday at Del Mar, the gray son of Malibu Moon stopped the clock in 50 seconds flat.
Nero — From the Baffert barn, he went from Feb. 22 until Monday without a work but appeared plenty fast off the shelf, going 5/8 of a mile in 1:01.00 (41/106). A two-turn try will come at some point, but a spot hasn’t been named for a horse who ran a nice, staying second last out in the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes.
Peace — He went as the second choice in the Feb. 3 Robert B. Lewis, a Grade 3 race won by the front-running Lombo, and didn’t fire that day. He’ll get another chance in the San Felipe and tuned up with five furlongs in 1:00.20 (12/106) on Monday for trainer Richard Mandella, whose horses typically get better as they go.
Snapper Sinclair — Second by a nose to Bravazo in the Risen Star, he has remained at Fair Grounds to train over the track in New Orleans ahead of a Louisiana Derby rematch. Monday marked his first breeze back, with five furlongs for trainer Steve Asmussen going in 1:01.80 (9/21).
Sporting Chance — Following a minor surgery and five months away from the races, the Grade 1 winner managed third in his return race, the Southwest. He’s training for a stretch out in the Grade 2 Rebel on March 17, going a full mile Monday in 1:41.40 at Oaklawn.
In case you missed it…
Sunday’s Derby Daily report listed the prospective fields for this weekend’s trio of Derby preps, plus a key stat to know as the trail continues.
• Catch up with all the latest Derby news by reading past editions of HRN’s Derby Daily report.