Kentucky Derby 2018 Daily: Hofburg looks like live longshot

Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily, which will each day leading up to the May 5 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space.

A win in the 2018 Kentucky Derby wouldn’t, as trainer Bill Mott put it, “change where I live or the roof over my head or what I eat for dinner at night.”

But the 64-year-old Hall of Famer notices the gap on his resume that’s highlighted by 10 Breeders’ Cup victories as well as the 2010 Belmont Stakes score with Drosselmeyer.

“There are a few races left out there I’d like to win, and the Derby would definitely be on that list,” said Mott, whose contender, Hofburg, hit the track Wednesday at Churchill Downs for the first time.

The regally bred Tapit colt is lightly raced with just three lifetime starts but boasts a modest foundation having entered Mott’s barn last May. While he experienced “baby issues,” as many in this Derby field have, they were never serious enough to take the colt fully out of training.

Hofburg debuted last September at Saratoga going seven furlongs but has excelled so far stretching longer at age 3. The Juddmonte Farms homebred broke his maiden March 3, caught wide throughout at 1 1/16 miles, then closed to run second in the March 31 Florida Derby at 1 1/8 miles.

“He’s got a very efficient way of moving, and I think it’s going to lend itself to him getting the distance — getting a mile and a quarter,” Mott said. “I think that’s very important. The other thing about him is, he ate a lot of dirt in both his Gulfstream races, and he seemed to really take the kickback well.

“Now, is that going to be the same on Derby Day? The fields have been half the size of what it will be on Derby Day.”

Still, Hofburg’s maiden win came with him in the outside post from a field of 11. And there were nine in the Florida Derby. So he has an edge on some in those respects, especially the big-name West Coast stars.

Hofburg sits at 35-1 in the latest Kentucky Derby odds distributed by the Wynn Las Vegas, having hit the wire three lengths behind Audible in the Florida Derby. Notably, the horses began their respective rallies at the same point in the race, with Audible going on to win but not distancing from Hofburg.

“Audible got the best of us on that day, but I can see if we move forward — and we’re supposed to move forward off that race — we would certainly close that gap on him a little bit,” Mott said. “Then the added distance could be in our favor.”

Mott has started seven Derby horses, most recently in 2009 when Hold Me Back ran 12th. His best finish in the race came in 1998 with eighth-place finisher Favorite Trick.

“We’ve always wanted to come to the Derby, and we’ve always wanted to bring horses to the Derby we felt had a chance,” he said. “We’ve been here maybe a few times when we were overmatched or had the wrong type of horse, but we’re hoping that this time we’ve got it more close to being right than in the past.

“He’s a well-bred horse. I think he’s meant for the distance. He’s got a very good disposition. He’s a very beautifully moving horse, and. I think he could possibly get the trip.”

Hofburg is expected to continue his preparation for the Derby with a Sunday breeze at Churchill Downs.

Derby leaderboard update

Blended Citizen, who won Turfway Park’s Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks, is now the first horse outside the Derby after a Daily Racing Form report confirmed Snapper Sinclair will be given time away from the races. Snapper Sinclair, from the Steve Asmussen barn, did not appear on track Wednesday morning. 

Per DRF’s Jay Privman, another Asmussen trainee in Reride, who was previously 23rd on the list, just behind Blended Citizen, is also not longer under consideration. Asmussen also trains the next horse on the list, Dream Baby Dream.

After that, others potentially under Derby consideration are Restoring Hope (Bob Baffert), Sporting Chance (D. Wayne Lukas) and Givemeaminit (Dallas Stewart). While the Derby starting gate is limited to 20 starters, 24 horses can be entered and wait out any potential defections until the Friday morning of Derby week.

The post position draw is set for 11 a.m. Tuesday.

Final fractions

Jennie Rees, the longtime Courier Journal turf writer, is back at this year’s Derby with WAVE3, Louisville’s NBC affiliate. Her “Final Fractions Theory” seeks to find the horse that will go the last furlong in the Kentucky Derby — adding to the 1 1/8 miles they’ve already run in a prep.

Rees believes 13 seconds or less makes for a contender. This year, that applies to all the major prep winners except for Good Magic in the Blue Grass Stakes, while Magnum Moon’s 11.99-second final 1/8 of a mile in the Arkansas Derby was fastest. Justify went 12.70 seconds in the Santa Anita Derby over a track that was admittedly playing slow.

Check out the full Final Fractions Theory piece, definitely one to consider as we get closer to the Derby.

Derby links

• The work tab will grow busy by Friday, when Todd Pletcher’s foursome of contenders are expected to breeze. Catch up on all the drills so far with Kentucky Derby workouts and analysis by HRN’s Laura Pugh.

• HRN’s Brian Zipse ran down the 20 horses making up the prospective field with this year’s edition of Kentucky Derby contenders and pretenders. And at least this writer agrees with just everything he said.  

• This couldn’t have been easy: HRN’s Matt Shifman took an “A to Z” approach to handicapping the Kentucky Derby, with each letter of the alphabet representing something unique to the 2018 field. Entertaining stuff.

In case you missed it…

Get the scoop with recent editions of the Derby Daily Report!

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