Kentucky Derby 2018 Daily: The numbers boost Good Magic

Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily, which will each day leading up to the May 5 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space.

This is not to say we’ve wasted our time analyzing 2018 Kentucky Derby preps run in the New Year. But according to information provided this week by Brisnet, it will take a significant step up by one of Good Magic’s rival for him suffer a defeat in Saturday’s Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes, the champ’s return race at Gulfstream Park.

Yes, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is a rich race, and it awards double the points during the Derby trail’s “Prep Season,” which concluded earlier this month with the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes. But the Juvenile also represents Good Magic’s lone victory, and he got it with heavy favorite Bolt d’Oro having to take a wide trip.

Apparently, it wasn’t a fluke. Brisnet’s Ed DeRosa called Good Magic’s run “a superlative performance by any metric.”

The Curlin colt, trained by Chad Brown, earned a 105 Speed Rating to match Bolt d’Oro’s figure from his standout win in the Grade 1 FrontRunner at Santa Anita Park. Speed simply measures how fast a horse ran.

Good Magic’s 123.9 Class Rating from the Juvenile was alone at No. 1 during the prep season. Class measures a horse’s effort relative to the field’s strength.

The numbers are derived from Brisnet’s proprietary data.

“Of those Breeders’ Cup Juvenile starters who have run back, there’s plenty to suggest the form will hold,” DeRosa wrote, pointing out Solomini’s Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity as a strong next-out race. While he was disqualified from the win for bumping in the lane, Solomini beat future impressive stakes winners McKinzie and Instilled Regard to the wire.

Just one race after the New Year, Avery Island’s Grade 3 Withers Stakes victory, is among the Top 5 in terms of Race Rating from Brisnet. So the best could be yet to come with Good Magic on deck in the Fountain of Youth and  Bolt d’Oro making his 3-year-old debut March 10 in the Grade 2 FrontRunner.

As for the rest? It appears they need to step up.

*placed 1^st via disqualification of Solomini

Brown weighs in

Per Gulfstream Park publicity, Good Magic’s trainer, Brown, had this to say about his colt’s impending return.

“The year is filled with promise. The horse, knock on wood, is very healthy. His battery is recharged. He’s a fresh horse. We’re excited to get his 3-year-old year kicked off and hopefully one filled with success and no interruptions.

“…He’s been working well. The little time off did him well. He’s filled out some; he’s grown some. The type of things you want to see Age 2 to 3 in physical development he’s doing. We’re excited to get his 3-year-old campaign kicked off.

“…There’s no place better to stretch him out two turns. You’ve got the short stretch and you’ve got Gulfstream Park, where he’s already proven he runs well over the surface.”

HRN’s Matt Shifman offers full-field Fountain of Youth Stakes odds and analysis.

Need-to-know for the Fountain of Youth

Mike Shutty, author of Horse Racing Nation’s Super Screener handicapping tool, delved into the numbers for Saturday’s big race, picking out some trends that should help with your wagering.

• Nine of the race’s last 10 winners struck at odds of 5-1 or shorter.

• Nine of the last 10 winners made a previous start at Gulfstream Park in January or February. The last horse to win off a layoff and come out of a race other than Gulfstream was Union Rags, who was an even-money favorite.

• Closers have struggled in the Fountain of Youth regardless of field size and pace scenarios. Only three have finished in the Exacta in the last decade.

• Of the 40 available Superfecta spots in the last 10 renewals of the Fountain of Youth, horses that made their previous start at Gulfstream took 28 of them (70 percent).

Shutty says “these stats bode well” for Good Magic, the favorite following Union Rags’ path, as well as Storm Runner and Free Drop Billy, who ran solid route races recently at Gulfstream Park.

Mask off the trail

Brown’s other Triple Crown contender, Mask, who missed training due to an undisclosed setback following his Mucho Macho Man Stakes victory, remains at the barn but will not be pointed to the Derby, according to the Paulick Report.

Bill Farish, whose Lane's End Racing owns the colt, said the horse "is doing well and should be coming up on a breeze very soon."

In case you missed it…

Tuesday’s Derby Daily report featured comments from our 2018 Kentucky Derby Media Poll voters who went with horses other than Good Magic and Bolt d’Oro on their first ballot of the year.

• Catch up with all the latest Derby news by reading past editions of HRN’s Derby Daily report.