Kentucky Derby 2018 Daily: Confusion on Europe’s trail
Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily, which will each day leading up to the May 5 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space.
Trainer Jeremy Noseda announced last week that Gronkowski, winner a European prep for the 2018 Kentucky Derby in his last start, would not travel after all to the United States for Keeneland’s Blue Grass Stakes.
On Sunday, Noseda confirmed with RacingPost.com some confusion in the colt’s camp about the points system.
“My presumption was we could carry our European points to the Blue Grass, but it turns out we would be starting back on zero if we ran there, so instead we'll aim to build on the 20 points we already have here at Newcastle,” Noseda said.
"If he went to America he'd probably have had to have finished first or second to get in the Kentucky Derby, so if something went wrong we'd be in trouble.”
Gronkowski will now go as the headliner in Friday’s Burradon Stakes, the final stop on the European trail. With a victory, he’ll be in line to receive the series’ invitation from Churchill Downs to run on the first Saturday in May.
It means a potentially easier way into the Kentucky Derby but will leave Gronkowski, a son of Lonhro, an unknown for handicappers wondering how he matches up with America’s top 3-year-olds.
And we rarely get opinionated here…though isn’t it a problem if connections can’t figure out the rules for the overseas Derby preps? For race fans, there have also been difficulties in figuring out which runners in European and Japanese stakes are interested in a trip to the United Stakes, versus those just in to win that race.
Shrinking the European and Japanese trails — perhaps to just one “win and you’re in” event — could cut down on the questions. Run it just before the late Triple Crown nomination deadline, or contest it afterward and limit entries to horses whose connections who nominated their horses.
Just a thought…
Opinions vary on Louisiana Derby
Art Wilson, of the Southern California News Group, sums up the majority of voters’ thoughts on both: “Neither Noble Indy nor Runaway Ghost did anything over the weekend to make me sit up and say, 'Wow.' Both cracked my Top 20 this week, but I don't believe either one is a threat to win the Derby.”
But there were a few outliers, including Churchill Downs track announcer Travis Stone.
“Noble Indy's Louisiana Derby was much more impressive than people are giving it credit for,” Stone said. “The pace was extremely fast and his re-rally late, for a young horse, is noteworthy. I'm not sure he can win the Kentucky Derby but he's not without chance.”
Voters didn’t weigh in so much on runner-up Lone Sailor, instead choosing to look to third-place finisher My Boy Jack.
Churchill Downs racing analyst Joe Kristufek said the Keith Desormeaux-trained colt “has an eye catching turn of foot and with the right setup and a well-timed move, he could make an impact in the stretch.” Horse Racing Nation’s Brian Zipse added that due to wide trip, “My Boy Jack is the closest thing to having 10-furlong experience for the Derby.”
Big West Coast works
The rematch is on, with San Felipe Stakes winner Bolt d’Oro (via disqualification) and runner-up McKinzie (the horse DQ’d) both tuning up for the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on Monday.
In a report from Santa Anita Park, private clocker Andy Harrington said “Bolt looked terrific,” and that McKinzie “looked solid.”
As is par for the course on this year’s Derby trail, the unbeaten allowance winner Justify generated the most conversation while tuning up for the Arkansas Derby. Last week, his half mile in 46.40 seconds ranked fastest of 105 workers at Santa Anita Park. Monday, he drilled 5/8 in 59.60, second-fastest of 116 horses at that distance.
Another well-known clocker, Bruno De Julio, weighed in about the breezes on Twitter:
In another post, De Julio added that “Justify has showed he lays his body down every single time” but, “to be a classic horse he needs to shut off at some time.”
Derby links
• In confirming Good Magic will make the Blue Grass Stakes his final prep, trainer Chad Brown revealed the colt had “foot issues” that left him “short” into a third-place Fountain of Youth Stakes effort. Reason to believe the champ will be better next out?
• Runaway Ghost will carry the hopes of Sunland Park’s horsemen into the Kentucky Derby after his score Sunday evening. We’ve got a full Sunland Derby recap and replay.
• Early, yes, but the field is set for Saturday’s prep run on the Dubai World Cup undercard at Meydan. Horse Racing Nation’s Matt Shifman offers up UAE Derby odds and analysis.
In case you missed it…
Get the scoop with recent editions of the Derby Daily Report!
Sunday | Saturday | Friday | Thursday | Wednesday