Kentucky Derby 2018 Daily: Casse 'real serious' about filly

Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily, which will each day leading up to the May 5 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space. We've got 120 days to go!

By Jonathan Lintner

Trainer Mark Casse’s embarrassment of riches on the road to the Kentucky Oaks could also lead him to his best contender for the 2018 Kentucky Derby.

Entries were Friday for Fair Grounds’ Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes, in which Wonder Gadot — who won Aqueduct’s Demoiselle last out — is expected to contend. She was cross-entered in the Jan. 13 feature for fillies as well, the Silverbulletday.

“It’s a real serious consideration,” Casse told Horse Racing Nation of facing the boys. “Obviously the way the points system works now, if you plan on trying to run a filly against colts in the Kentucky Derby, you’d better start getting some points.”

• RELATED: Full field odds and analysis for the Lecomte

A filly hasn’t competed in the Derby since Devil May Care in 2010. That pre-dates the Derby and Oaks points systems that began with the 2013 runnings.

Giving Casse confidence in Wonder Gadot, a daughter of Medaglia d’Oro, is a combination of her breeding, her bounce-back effort after a troubled sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, and her ownership. The horse is campaigned by Gary Barber, a stakeholder in Grade 2 Golden Rod winner Road to Victory. Barber is also the sole owner in Miss Mo Mentum, winner of Gulfstream Park's Dec. 9 Hut Hut Stakes by 8 3/4 lengths.

Barber is “wanting to see them spread apart to where they’re not running against each other, and his feeling — I agree with him — is that if there’s one that would have a shot at possibly the Kentucky Derby,” Casse said, “it’s (Wonder Gadot). I wouldn’t mind trying her out sooner rather than later.”

The Lecomte field will be loaded with highly regarded allowance winner Principe Guilherme included along with Instilled Regard, who ships in from the West Coast off a runner-up effort in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity.

“We’ve had fairly good luck running fillies against colts, so it’s not something we’re afraid to do,” Casse added. “I think it’s all overrated, to be honest with you. It happens all the time in Europe.”

Desormeaux back on the trail

Keith Desormeaux, trainer of 2017 Derby runner Sonneteer, also in 2016 won the Preakness Stakes with Exaggerator, who was purchased for a relative bargain $110,000. The Blood-Horse spoke with Desormeaux this week as he prepares to send $20,000 colt My Boy Jack in Saturday’s Grade 3 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita Park.

"I've always believed you could find a top-class stakes horse without spending a boatload of money, and I've proven it. A lot of the big sellers may not like it, but it can be done.”

Then, he joked, "Now, when I sell one of those Exaggerator babies, you really need to pay a lot of money. You’re gonna really have to open that wallet."

Romans lines up his contenders

Dale Romans, the Louisville native who dreams of winning a Derby, will roll out the first of his 2018 contenders Saturday as Dak Attack heads Gulfstream Park’s Mucho Macho Man Stakes. The Thoroughbred Daily News recently caught up with Romans on others from his barn considered Derby hopefuls:

• Tiz Mischief, last time out a close second in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs, is pointing toward Gulfstream Park’s Holy Bull to run Feb. 3.

• Plans are less concrete for Free Drop Billy, the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity winner who finished ninth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. The colt will return to the work tab this week.

• It’s a similar path for Hollywood Star, who was sixth in the Juvenile and hit the board in both the Grade 2 Saratoga Special and Grade 2 Iroquois. He should soon post a work, but a specific race hasn’t been targeted.

Which preps are best?

Thanks to HRN co-founder Mark Midland for this addition to the Derby Daily: It may come as a surprise, but of the five Derby preps run in January, the Lecomte has been the most productive in turning out starters on the first Saturday in May, with 11 Derby runners in the last 10 years. So chances are good that we’ll see at least one Lecomte contender at Churchill Downs

But running in the Derby is one thing. Actually contending is another. Of all of the runnings of Derby preps set for January over the last 10 years (38 total races), only 22 horses have gone on to run in the Derby. And only Lecomte runner Golden Soul hit the board with his longshot runner-up effort in 2013. The next best finishes came from Destin (sixth in 2017) and Oxbow (sixth in 2013), both also from the Lecomte. No horse from a January running of the Sham, Jerome, Mucho Macho Man or Smarty Jones has ever finished better than eighth in the Kentucky Derby. 

Sham (2 Derby starters in last 7 years; average finish = 13.0) 

• Gormley (2017, 9th in Derby), Goldencents (2013, 17th) 

Note: The Sham was moved to early January in 2011. 

Jerome (1 Derby starter in 5 years) 

• Vyjack (2013, 18th)

Note: Only run as a Derby prep the last 5 years. 

Lecomte (11 Derby starters in 10 years; average finish = 10.5) 

• Untrapped (2017, 12th), Destin (6th), Mo Tom (2016, 8th), Tom's Ready (2016, 12th), War Story (2015, 16th), Vicar's In Trouble (2014, 16th),

Golden Soul (2013, 2nd), Oxbow (2013, 6th), Pants on Fire (2011, 9th), Friesan Fire (2009, 18th), Z Fortune (2008, 10th) 

Mucho Macho Man (4 Derby starters in 6 years; average finish = 15.8)

• State of Honor (2017, 19th), General A Rod (2014, 11th), Wildcat Red (2014, 18th), Itsmyluckyday (2013, 15th), 

Note: Only run as a Derby prep the last 6 years (called Gulfstream Park Derby 2012-2014).

Smarty Jones (5 Derby starters in 10 years; average finish = 12.4)

• Mr. Z (2015, 13th), Far Right (2015, 15th), Will Take Charge (2013, 8th), Optimizer (2012, 11th), Archarcharch (2011, 15th)

Friday’s workers

Avery Island / Enticed — Both these Kiaran McLaughlin trainees are pointed to Feb. 3 races, either the Holy Bull at Gulfstream or Aqueduct’s Withers. McLaughlin hasn’t determined yet who’s going where. The colts have worked twice since their last starts. Kentucky Jockey Club winner Enticed drilled a half mile in 49.80 (24/43) at the Palm Meadows Training Center, while Remsen Stakes runner-up Avery Island went a second faster, ranking 8/43.

Copper Bullet — The Saratoga Special winner back in August returned to the work tab for trainer Steve Asmussen, going a (very) easy half mile in 52.80 seconds, 58th-fastest of 60. Shin issues sidelined the More Than Ready colt, with Friday’s drill the start of what should be a handful of drills before he’s back to the races.

Lionite — Fourth in Keeneland’s Breeders’ Futurity, he has one point toward Derby qualifying but remains a maiden. No word yet on whether he’ll face winners or non-winners next out. Friday’s work went in 1:03.20 for five furlongs (33/49).

Strike Power — An impressive debut winner two days before Christmas, the Mark Hennig trainee posted his first breeze back, four furlongs in 50.03 seconds (20/33). Strike Power registered a 102 Beyer Speed Figure — just one point off the class-high 103 given to Bolt d’Oro from his win in the Grade 1 FrontRunner — going 5 1/2 furlongs at Gulfstream.

Derby links

West Coast journalist Art Wilson had a tough decision to make, along with the rest of us who voted for the 2017 Eclipse Awards, between Bolt d'Oro and Good Magic for champion 2-year-old male. Wilson reveals his vote.

We Miss Artie, 10th in the 2014 Derby, arrived home to Ramsey Farm, where he'll stand in 2018 for $5,000.

Ron Flatter, of VSiN, writes that "trainers are getting more creative in choosing spots for new 3-year-olds to find their legs," reflected in top Derby hopefuls running outside points-paying races early in their campaigns.

In case you missed it…

Previous entries in our first week of the Derby Daily included a conversation with Bob Baffert as well as news on a West Coast contender who may be off the trail. Check out Thursday’s edition to get free past performances for Saturday’s Derby preps.