Kentucky Derby 2018 Daily: Can Principe Guilherme progress?

With an approximate eight-hour van ride separating the sites of this weekend’s two major 2018 Kentucky Derby preps, a big-name contender for both was cross-entered in the Grade 2 Risen Star and Grade 3 Southwest Stakes.

A Three Chimneys Farm representative told HRN that Principe Guilherme is more likely to remain in New Orleans for Saturday’s Risen Star at Fair Grounds, where Derby qualifying points are up for grabs on a 50-20-10-5 scale. Should connections opt instead for Oaklawn’s Southwest run on Monday, they would dodge Instilled Regard, who defeated Principe Guillherme in the Grade 3 Lecomte, but run for lower stakes with the points scaled at 10-4-2-1.

In either spot, the big question remains: Will the son of Tapit show progress?

“If he can move forward from a strong race like the Lecomte it will make all the difference,” said trainer Steve Asmussen. “I think that if we’re able to have success in the Risen Star with him or Snapper Sinclair then it will put us exactly in the position that we want to be in the 3-year-old picture. No one misses the fact that it’s 50 points to the winner of the Risen Star, which would pretty much guarantee a spot in the starting gate with them in the Kentucky Derby.”

They key numbers for Principe Guilherme are nine (his post position, one away from the outside) and 92 (his Brisnet speed rating in all three previous starts).

In the Lecomte, the colt managed to run on for second despite stuck wide into the first turn. But his speed figure didn’t improve from either his maiden or allowance runs that elevated Principe Guilherme near the top of the Derby picture. With the distance upped from 1 mile, 70 yards to 1 1/16 miles, the run to first turn could decide his outcome.

“Obviously he’s a very talented horse and has a huge pedigree,” Asmussen said. “His first two races were very easy and I thought with the numbers of runners as well as his draw in the Lecomte, there were a lot of variables that he had not faced before. I feel really good about how he came out of that race and came back to the racetrack from the (Lecomte). I don’t think that his confidence was shaken; I think that he’s been serious. We’ve gotten into a very good rhythm with him headed into the Risen Star.

“Saying that, obviously nothing but respect for the field that’s assembled. It’s a very serious race, but I feel like we have a good representation.”

For some perspective on this race's importance, check out a full Risen Star Stakes history and note the runners, which in recent years include Gun Runner and Palace Malice.

Saturday handicapping materials

For the Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star (6:03 p.m. ET)

Analysis | Past Performances | Picks

For the $100,000 El Camino Real Derby (6:57 p.m. ET)

Analysis | Past Performances | Picks

Filly could crash the Derby trail party

The El Camino Real Derby lost its graded status and saw its purse cut in half heading into this year. Then, just two of nine entrants were nominated to the Triple Crown series. Perhaps the race's days on the Kentucky Derby trail are numbered, also considering it's contested over a synthetic surface.

With Saturday’s running to also pay out points on a 10-4-2-1 scale, the race is being used as a prep for a different sort of campaign by the morning line second choice. Paved, a filly who enters off a speedy maiden win on turf, is expected to return to the grass.

According to the Blood-Horse, Santa Anita Park’s Grade 3 Providencia in April is next.

“And then, hopefully, that could send us to Keeneland and to Belmont, so we're very excited about the coming months with her,” trainer Michael McCarthy said.

"We have long-term goals for this filly,” Eclipse Thoroughbreds’ Aron Wellman added in the Blood-Horse article. “As far as 3-year-old turf fillies are concerned, the major races don't come until the second half of the year. It's really important that we develop her properly and are methodical about the races we choose, so come the second half of the year, she will have a lot of gas left in the tank.”

So, about the El Camino Real Derby race history: not quite as indicative of Derby glory as the Risen Star.

Meet the Southwest field

Reports of split divisions for the Grade 3, $500,000 Southwest Stakes were greatly exaggerated. The race ended up attracting 11 entrants for Monday’s race, with a number of horses under consideration opting instead to go in allowance company later on the card.

HRN’s Christine Oser offers full-field Southwest Stakes analysis with a chance for rain also factored.

Derby links

• Before the Risen Star, favorite Instilled Regard’s assistant trainer, Christina Jelm, said the $1 million son of Arch has settled in having returned from the West Coast. “He appears to have put on some weight and he’s definitely more professional this round,” she said, “not that he wasn’t professional last time out but he’s maturing.”

• Magnum Moon could be bound for Oaklawn Park's next Kentucky Derby prep, the Grade 2 Rebel, off his impressive second-out win Thursday at Tampa Bay Downs. Trainer Todd Pletcher confirmed stakes are next.

• Faversham, the full brother to California Chrome, is a go for Monday’s California Cup Derby at Santa Anita Park, where he’ll make the quick ascent from maiden debut runner-up to stakes horse. Trainer Art Sherman says to expect more early speed.

• It’s possible Saturday’s Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel Park produces a Kentucky Derby prospect. Notably, though, connections to undefeated runner Dynamic Asset are already thinking about the Triple Crown’s second jewel, the Preakness Stakes.

In case you missed it…

Thursday’s Derby Daily report led with Gold Town, a name to know on the trail after his dominating victory in the UAE 2000 Guineas at Meydan.

• Catch up with all the latest Derby news by reading past editions of HRN’s Derby Daily report.