Kentucky Derby 2018 Daily: Baffert ready to test Justify
Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily, which will each day leading up to the May 5 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space.
With Bob Baffert overseas this week, putting the final touches on West Coast’s run at the $10 million Dubai World Cup, the topic of his barn’s next potential superstar colt arose.
Baffert said Justify — who’s 2-for-2, and targeting the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on April 14 — “is late to the party, but the raw talent is there.” The Hall of Famer’s looking forward to putting the son of Scat Daddy through the paces at Oaklawn Park, as he’ll have to ship, run in front of a large crowd and stretch to a 1 1/8 miles against stakes-caliber competition.
“I think it will be good for him to go through all that and see if he can handle it.” Baffert told Jennifer Hoyt, Oaklawn’s media relations manager. “Can he hold up under pressure? He's done everything well at Santa Anita, but he's had it his way. California has short fields, and all of a sudden you get him in the gate with 12 or 14 horses in there, and he's never had any adversity before.
“He had a little in his first start, when he went really, really fast and then kept going. That's when he showed us how good he is. The other day he had that little allowance race where he sat off the pace a little bit.”
Justify’s victories — one at seven furlongs, and the next at a mile — have come by a combined 16 lengths under hand rides. The hype continued to ratchet up Monday when he worked five furlongs in 59.60 seconds, second-fastest of 118 drills at that distance.
He very well could end up the Arkansas Derby favorite, as Justify already closed as the individual top choice in Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 3. Waiting at Oaklawn Park will be the other colt from this crop who didn’t race at age 2, but is on the radar as a top 3-year-old, Grade 2 Rebel Stakes winner Magnum Moon.
“If he runs well there, we’ll run in the Derby, or just wait for the Preakness,” Baffert said. “But we're just taking it one race at a time. I think he’s really talented. He's a big, beautiful red horse. He’s a big strong horse.
“I have McKinzie, too, and he's a really good horse but nobody talks about him. He's a good horse, too.”
McKinzie will match up with Bolt d’Oro in the April 7 Santa Anita Derby, and on the same day, Baffert-trained Solomini goes in Aqueduct’s Wood Memorial. But Baffert’s right. People — including us — can’t seem to get enough of Justify.
Gronkowski goes in final prep
The colt earned 20 points on Europe’s Derby trail with a last-out win, but because those points don’t translate to the domestic series, he’ll remain home overseas, looking to secure a spot in the gate May 5.
A son of Lonhro, unbeaten on synthetic since switching from turf late last year, Gronkowski is the only Triple Crown nomination in the Burradon field. But the race does award 30 points to the winner, and a Churchill Downs news release indicates the nomination isn’t key to receiving the European trail’s one invitation. Connections of another horse could pay the $200,000 supplemental fee to enter the Kentucky Derby.
Still, Gronkowski appears in line to ultimately get the bid. Currently, UAE Derby-bound Mendelssohn owns the tiebreaker over him. Both horses have 20 points, but Mendelssohn, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner, has accumulated higher non-restricted graded stakes earnings.
We’ll root for clarity by this time tomorrow.
UAE Derby history
Begin discussing the UAE Derby, and you’re bound to get the response: What have those horses ever done in the Kentucky Derby? Well, keep in mind the race has only existed since 2000, and Meydan didn’t switch to dirt until 2015.
This year’s field that includes Mendelssohn, UAE 2000 Guineas winner Gold Town and Reride, from American trainer Steve Asmussen’s barn, looks like the best edition of the race yet, at least in terms of prospects that could make noise at Churchill Downs.
Click the graphic below for a more extensive look at past UAE Derbys.
Derby links
• According to a Gulfstream Park profile of trainer Jonathan Thomas, his step up to the big stage in Saturday’s Florida Derby has been a lifetime in the making. The former jockey grew up around horses and says his interaction with animals keeps him going today.
• Keeneland’s stakes coordinator reports that 12 horses are likely to run in the April 7 Blue Grass Stakes, another major prep on the Kentucky Derby trail. Good Magic and Free Drop Billy are the headliners.
• Joining the Blue Grass fray at Keeneland will be Sporting Chance, the Grade 1 winner who missed the board last out in the Rebel Stakes. “I just think it might be a better fit” than the Arkansas Derby, trainer D. Wayne Lukas said. Why? Well, Justify and Magnum Moon.
• Bolt d’Oro, the top-ranked horse in the 2018 Kentucky Derby Media Poll, is doing “better than ever,” owner and trainer Mick Ruis said this week. The colt will have his final workout for the April 7 clash with McKinzie on Sunday.
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