Kentucky Derby 2018 Daily: Audible’s final work concerning?
Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily, which will each day leading up to the May 5 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space.
While Audible heads into Saturday’s Grade 1, $1 million Florida Derby a 9-5 morning line favorite, he hasn’t raced in two months — and plenty has changed since then on the 2018 Kentucky Derby trail.
Bolt d’Oro and McKinzie validated themselves on the West Coast. Audible’s stablemates, Noble Indy and Magnum Moon, earned their trips to Churchill Downs. And the Holy Bull Stakes (G2) has only produced one next-out winner, Enticed, who shipped to New York to take the Gotham Stakes (G3).
Given the layoff, increased attention has been paid to Audible’s morning works. The last of them heading into this weekend’s race came in company with Vino Rosso, who actually beat Audible to the wire.
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Concerning?
“We were up at Palm Beach Downs yesterday and he’s very bright, very alert,” said Elliott Walden, whose WinStar Farm co-owns Audible. “He’s an average work horse, but he’s been that way his whole life. The other day he worked a half in 49 and one and I think Todd worked 30 horses a half-mile at Palm Beach that day, and he was third of 30.
“We were very pleased with how he worked and looking forward to Saturday.”
So, perhaps it was a standout breeze by Vino Rosso — another Derby trail runner targeting the Wood Memorial — and not a case of Audible losing form. Pletcher echoed Walden when evaluating the son of Into Mischief.
“I thought it was a standard Audible work,” Pletcher said. “He’s not an overzealous workhorse, but he put in a nice 49 on a track that isn’t playing particularly fast. He galloped out with some enthusiasm. He seems like he’s training consistently with the way he was training up to the Holy Bull and some of his other races.”
Pletcher added Wednesday that should Audible replicate his Holy Bull effort, which resulted in a 5 1/2-length victory at 1 1/16 miles, he should be good enough to win at 1 1/8.
But when’s the last time a major Derby contender didn’t beat his work mate?
Thoughts on the draw
Nine were confirmed to run in the Florida Derby with Promises Fulfilled (3-1) and Catholic Boy (7-2) the other top choices on the morning line.
An inside draw should aid Strike Power. While this field size shouldn’t cost any contender with the draw, it’s at least worth noting No. 8 Audible and No. 9 Mississippi will need to find a way inside on a short run up to the first turn.
Mississippi, who ran competitively with eventual Louisiana Derby winner Noble Indy back in January, scratched from the Holy Bull when assigned another outside post position. He’ll stay in the Florida Derby with this the last chance at earning Kentucky Derby qualifying points.
They pay out on a 100-40-20-10 scale to the Top 4 finishers.
• Get our full-field Florida Derby analysis
Points complications
This is a topic we’ll certainly dive into more later in the week, but after it took 30 qualifying points to get into last year’s Kentucky Derby, the number could be on the rise this year.
One horse is expected to be invited from Japan’s Derby trail completed Feb. 6. The new European series concludes Friday with the Burradon Stakes featuring Gronkowski. And the UAE Derby could send two contenders to Churchill Downs with horses like Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Mendelssohn and Gold Town in the running.
Domestically, it means a Justify type of hopeful can’t afford to finish worse than second in his only points race, the Arkansas Derby. And a a horse like My Boy Jack, who has 32 points after a close third in the Louisiana Derby, may indeed need to run again.
We’ll circle back after Saturday’s races on what that “magic number” might be to make the gate — and which big names could miss out.
Derby links
• Mentioned earlier, Mendelssohn will use the UAE Derby as a proving ground, looking to become trainer Aidan O’Brien’s next Churchill Downs charge. “You couldn’t be sure how well he will stay as he goes beyond a mile for the first time,” O’Brien said, “but we are hopeful he will get the trip.”
• Stationed in Dubai for Saturday's $10 million World Cup, trainer Bob Baffert said McKinzie will put blinkers back on for the April 7 Santa Anita Derby after racing without them in both his starts at age 3.
• Following an eighth-place Louisiana Derby finish, Bravazo was found to be sound by trainer D. Wayne Lukas and will continue on to the Kentucky Derby. With a 50-point win in the Risen Star Stakes (G2), the colt is assured a spot.
• And, finally, the 2017 Kentucky Derby winner will kick off his 4-year-old campaign Saturday on the Florida Derby’s undercard. It’ll be Always Dreaming versus Irish War Cry in the Hardacre Mile.
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