Kentucky Derby 2018 Daily: A lot to like about Strike Power

Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily, which will each day leading up to the May 5 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space.

They said Strike Power wouldn’t stretch after posting a 102 Beyer Speed Figure in his 5 1/2-furlong debut. Then he wouldn’t like two turns after moving to 2-for-2 in the Swale Stakes (G3).

And now?

After a runner-up to Promises Fulfilled in the Fountain of Youth (G2), trainer Mark Hennig’s hearing the doubts again about the son of Speightstown when it comes to the 2018 Kentucky Derby.

“We’re optimistic, but we’re realistic,” said Hennig, with Strike Power a contender in Saturday’s Grade 1, $1 million Florida Derby. “He has to run a mile and an eighth before he runs a mile and a quarter.

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But there’s a lot to like about this colt, including his post position. The rail draw with a short run up to the first turn at Gulfstream Park will make for a ground-saving trip. So perhaps this time, Strike Power will put the pressure on Promises Fulfilled early after that one got away with an opening half mile in the Fountain of Youth of 48.39 seconds.

“The main thing I didn’t want him to do was to get caught up in a speed duel and I thought he settled well,” Hennig said of the last meeting. “He settles well when you’re trying to work with him. I don’t know about rating in this spot. We’ll see how he breaks and see what happens.”

At 4-1 on the morning line, Strike Power’s the fourth betting choice in a loaded field headed by Holy Bull Stakes (G2) winner Audible at 9-5. The Courtlandt Farm homebred may qualify for the Kentucky Derby with a third-place effort, but Hennig has said it would take a victory for him to feel comfortable moving on to Churchill Downs.

That’s optimism meeting realism — a common sense approach by Hennig, who first saddled Personal Hope for a fourth-place finish in the 1993 Derby. Gulfstream’s meet-leading rider, Luis Saez, will be in the irons Saturday.

“He’s a dream to train,” Hennig said of Strike Power. “The toughest part of having really nice horses and horse with his kind of speed is that they want to do too much on a daily basis and when you breeze them. He’s so push button.

“He’s always willing to please the rider, which makes my job that much easier.”

Saturday handicapping tools

For the Group 2 UAE Derby (9:30 a.m. ET)…

Analysis | Free past performances

For the Grade 1 Florida Derby (6:36 p.m. ET)…

Analysis | Picks | Free past performances

Additionally, Horse Racing Nation’s Super Screener handicapping system honed in on two “solid” Kentucky Derby prep win picks.

Gronkowski clinches his spot

Trainer Jeremy Noseda confirmed that it’s on to Churchill Downs for Gronkowski, a son of Lonhro who has won four straight races in Europe, after Friday’s victory in the Burradon Stakes at Newcastle. 

That’s one less spot available for a domestic runner with points at a premium down the stretch of Kentucky Derby prep season. A Churchill news release indicated that pending the results of Saturday’s UAE Derby at Meydan, a Japanese horse — either Ruggero or Taiki Ferveur — could also accept an invitation from an overseas circuit.

The UAE Derby favorites are Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner Mendelssohn and Gold Town, an open-lengths local winner. Should they run 1-2, that could mean four spots of 20 in the Derby starting gate belong to international interests — and a Top 18 points finish would be needed by the others to guarantee their own positions.

For reference, points totals for the 18th horse in the Derby since 2013 were…

2017: Untrapped (34) 

2016: Majesto (40)

2015: Ocho Ocho Ocho (30)

2014: Vinceremos (20)

2013: Charming Kitten (20)

We'll circle back on this after Saturday's races.

Florida Derby history

Three of the last five Florida Derby winners — Orb (2013), Nyquist (2016) and Always Dreaming (2017) — went on to wear roses at Churchill Downs. And overall, 44 starters from this race have won a total of 59 Triple Crown series races, with 14 of those winning two legs.

So, yes, this one matters. Plenty.

Click the graphic below for a more extensive history of the Florida Derby.

Derby links

• The New York Racing Association offered an update on Wood Memorial contenders ahead of the April 7 race, part of a massive weekend that also includes the Santa Anita Derby and Blue Grass Stakes. The news? Solomini is “90 percent” confirmed to run at Aqueduct.

• HRN’s Reinier Macatangay argues that Catholic Boy is the horse to beat in the Florida Derby, writing that “because Catholic Boy needed to overcome pace adversity to finish a close second” in the Sam F. Davis, “it is arguable he ran the best race.”

• Jon White, a voter in HRN’s 2018 Kentucky Derby Media Poll, introduced his first look at the Derby Strikes System — essentially, whittling down historically what sort of resume performs best the first Saturday in May.

In case you missed it…

Get the scoop with recent editions of the Derby Daily Report!

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