Weekend Takeaways: Justiy'd Kentucky Derby favorite emerges

Another weekend in the books, and what an impressive one it was, especially on the 2018 Kentucky Derby trail. My main takeaways:

Justify'd, in a really big way

After the Santa Anita Derby, I saw people reacting in two ways. Either you thought Justify was the second coming after shrugging off the very accomplished Bolt D’Oro, or you weren’t impressed at all because “he had it his own way and won’t get a lead like that in Kentucky.”

After the dust settled, I sided with neither of those opinions. I believe he is clearly the most talented horse in the crop, and a deserving Kentucky Derby favorite. However, I don’t believe the Derby will be a cakewalk.

Justify’s Santa Anita Derby received 114 Brisnet Speed Rating, a 132 from TimeformUS and a 107 Beyer Speed Figure. All three stand head and shoulders above anything that has been recorded stateside this season. The Santa Anita Derby pace was seemingly slow, but figure makers seem to agree that could be a product of the track.

Later in the card, the frontrunners in the Santa Anita Oaks collapsed after setting nearly identical splits to what Justify threw down in the Derby, paving the way for Midnight Bisou to circle the field and pull away impressively. However, her effort was rated considerably lower than Justify, earning a 90 Beyer and a 116 from TimeformUS. 

Despite this, Justify will still face a bevy of new and daunting tasks in Louisville: a much larger field, new faces (i.e. Magnum Moon, Mendelssohn and Audible), along with a hotter pace. Luckily for him, he doesn’t need the lead. However, to underestimate the weight of the obstacles facing him is ill advised. He justified his billing as one of the top guns on the Derby trail, and he’s a deserving favorite, but the "Curse of Apollo" will not end without a fight.

Second rate “Magic”

I know I’m going to catch heat for this -- I already have -- but color me unimpressed by Good Magic’s Blue Grass Stakes victory.

It came against a field of horses that rate second string on this year’s Kentucky Derby food chain, and he was all out to beat them. The numbers that came back were also uninspiring, with Beyer giving the race a 95, Brisnet a 92 and TimeformUS a 122. All were well below the numbers earned by Justify.

He also did not give the impression of wanting more distance, coming home his final furlong in 13.30 seconds after receiving a perfect trip. For comparison's sake, Justify came home his final eighth in :12.70, while Vino Rosso completed his in 12.73. The Kentucky Derby is a whole furlong farther to go, and based on that finish by Good Magic, I’m not really seeing him relishing that extra distance.

Where'd Army Mule come from?

All this horse had to his credit last year was one race in April, and then poof, gone. This year, he’s an undefeated Grade 1 winner, who has now won his three career races by a combined total of 22 1/4 lengths. Oh, and in case you didn’t notice, he’s fast. Like he’s really, really fast.

After his blowout win in the Carter Handicap, where he made well-regarded Awesome Slew look like a claimer, motoring home in 1:20.94, getting his last eighth in :11.90. His numbers came back phenomenal. A 137 TimeformUS and a 114 Beyer Speed Figure. After such a performance, he'll point to the prestigious Met Mile on the Belmont Stakes undercard.

So far this year, the older male division lacks leadership. Always Dreaming could return to form, as could Tapwrit and a couple others. But there are still no real superstars. This colt has the potential to fill the void.

Kentucky Oaks a two filly race

Uninspiring is a word that wouldn’t be out of place when talking about the 2018 group of 3-year-old fillies as a whole. Thankfully there are two that seem to be a saving grace, and they are Monomoy Girl and Midnight Bisou.

Both fillies went into their final Oaks preps the strong favorites, and they won in dominant fashion. The former took command from the start, and never looked back, winning by a decisive 5 ½ lengths, while the latter made a bold move around the final turn, inhaling the field in one fell swoop, winning by an ever-widening 3 ½ lengths.

Both were equally impressive and exhilarating in their own way and set the stage for an East (Monomoy Girl) vs. West (Midnight Bisou) clash in the Kentucky Oaks.

He's got 'It'

After Friday’s Transylvania Stakes, there were a few rumblings that Analyze It, a son of Point of Entry, could be the best 3-year-old in the country regardless of surface. While I do believe the hype has settled in light of Justify’s Santa Anita Derby victory, the fact still remains: Analyze It is still a major talent. The question is, just how much of a talent?

In his short career, he’s won at three different tracks, from Belmont, to Del Mar, to Keeneland, each time by blowout margins. Winning by three or more lengths on turf is not really common. The surface is more known for producing utterly chaotic blanket finishes, so the fact that Analyze It is has won all of his starts by four or more lengths is simply huge.

Unfortunately, we might have to wait a while before we can see exactly how talented Analyze It truly is. The next major turf race for his particular age group is the Belmont Derby Invitational in July. If his connections choose to run there, it is a big possibility that he could face some European talent, which always presents a challenge to American turf horses.