Weekend Rewind: Derby picture clear as Oaklawn's mud

HRN's Weekend Rewind looks back at races of note from around the country:

Those who thought 2018 Kentucky Derby picture was relatively clear leading into this weekend, I have news for you: It definitely isn’t now.

Thanks to the Risen Star and Southwest Stakes, our previous premonitions on the 3-year-old picture have completely blown up. And if you ask me, the best thing to do is to simply toss those races and wait to see more moving forward. 

Fair Grounds had a HUGE bias Saturday for those going two turns on the main track. If you were on the lead, you were almost guaranteed a victory. The only two-turn race that didn’t see that happen was the Rachel Alexandra Stakes, in which Monomoy Girl rallied from last to first while pace-setting Classy Act held on for second. 

At Oaklawn, rain did not go away. It did not come again another day. Rather, it stayed and proceeded to ruin the day. First there appeared to be a major speed bias, but toward the end of the card, that reversed as two closers managed to ride the rail to victory in consecutive races (the Razorback Handicap and the Southwest Stakes), while the leaders faded in the stretch.

Due to these conditions, we saw longshots rule the Kentucky Derby preps, while favorites flamed out.

Personally, I would not hold out much hope for Risen Star favorite Instilled Regard moving forward. The effort was too dull despite any bias or trouble he may have encountered. The only horse I’ll take seriously out of that race is Noble Indy, who was running down inside most of the race, and never really seemed comfortable there. I believe, if given the chance, he will improve with an outside post and return to what worked for him in his impressive Gulfstream Park allowance win entering Saturday. 

In the Southwest, your pick is as good as mine. My Boy Jack rode a bias, so I’m not the least bit sold on him. Combatant ran admirably again, but Mourinho will be the question mark leaving this race. Personally, I will give him a pass. He took a lot of heat through the race and looked like he was still going to pull away, but lacked the kick he had in the Smarty Jones. I believe that was more due to the track than the pace pressure, something jockey Drayven Van Dyke echoed.

As impressive as he was in Saturday Grade 3 Mineshaft Handicap, I will need to see more from The Player before I start to swoon. 

First, as mentioned above, the two-turn races over the main track were very biased towards horses on the lead, and that is exactly where The Player ran his race. Second, the son of Street Hero has a bad habit of breaking out the type of performance that makes you think he’s put it all together, only to follow it up with disappointment in his next couple starts.

Maybe this time he has put it all together, given trainer Buff Bradley added blinkers and it resulted in a better effort. But I will remain a skeptic until he can do it consistently.

It isn’t often a horse that starts its career in a maiden claimer winds up winning a graded stakes race, but that’s Martini Glass’ story. Through 2017 and 2018, she came close only to end up with no cigar in graded stakes attempts, including a runner-up to the Great Songbird in the Grade 1 Delaware Handicap.

However, the tough-as-nails mare proved that if you just keep at it, you are bound to break through. Running in Monday’s featured, Grade 3 Royal Delta Stakes at Gulfstream Park, Martini Glass crashed the party that was supposed to be Lewis Bay vs. Curlin’s Approval. 

Did Martini Glass announce herself as a mare to watch in the Distaff division? She’s always been a nice, useful filly, but last year she grew up quite a bit, delivering several top notch efforts in top class races. First, she was just a length behind Songbird, then ran second in the Grade 1 Spinster at Keeneland to Romantic Vision.

This year’s distaff division looks wide open outside of Forever Unbridled and Abel Tasman. Given Monday’s run, there is no reason that the 5-year-old daughter of Kitalpha can’t raise her ceiling higher.