Ranking the 2018 Kentucky Derby Top 20: Who will win it?
During the first two rounds of 2018 Kentucky Derby preps, I ranked the Top 20 in points according to likelihood of making it to the gate. Now, with all points races concluded, I’m ready to list them again, this time in accordance to whom I believe will finish first to last.
The prospective field looks to be one of the deepest Kentucky Derbys in recent history. Two undefeated colts — both un-raced at 2 — will attempt to break the curse of Apollo dating back to 1882. And they’ll face horses with foundation, such as top juveniles Good Magic and Bolt d’Oro.
One thing about this year that’s different than the last few Derbys is the amount of speed, with several contenders who want to sit on the lead or very close to it. Their natural speed could quicken the pace substantially when compared to other Derbys in the points era.
It appears Promises Fulfilled is going to the front early. His connections have already said that much. There will also be Mendelssohn, who wired the UAE Derby field, along with Bravazo, Noble Indy and Flameaway intent on flashing their speed early to ensure position. Magnum Moon and Justify will also likely be in the fray, as they have little to no experience taking back and dealing with traffic.
All of this leads to a swift pace at best, and a volatile one at worst, which could help the cause of those who like to race mid-pack such as Vino Rosso, Bolt D’Oro and Audible. All three have show the ability to capitalize on pace meltdowns, which when coupled with their exception closing kick, makes them extremely dangerous horses for the win spot if the pace gets too hot.
The one wild card in this year’s Derby is the European-raced Gronkowski. He has never run over a dirt track and never been farther than a mile, and as if that wasn’t enough he will have to ship from Europe to Kentucky to race in America’s toughest race to win. Personally, I don’t expect much from him, but I’ve been wrong before. Cough, cough…Animal Kingdom.
So, without further ado, I give you my ranking of the current Top 20 horses in the Kentucky Derby.
1.
2. Bolt D’Oro – He was beaten by a monster in Justify. His other loss, to another Baffert top gun, was a great effort off the layoff. This is his third start of the year, and at the same point as a juvenile he put in a career-best effort.
3.
4. Hofburg – He came out of nowhere as a lightly raced maiden winner from the Bill Mott barn. But has the style to do well in this race. Distance shouldn’t be an issue, and as with others, he’ll get another good pace at which to run.
5. Mendelssohn – I don’t doubt his brilliance, but Bellamy Road is still fresh in my mind. In addition to having to recover from a monumental effort, he will have to travel to another continent again, and that will make his third overseas trip in his last four outings.
6. Magnum Moon – He’s a quality colt, but he won’t even be 3-years-old by the time the Derby rolls around. Plus he’s still extremely green, displaying a habit of drifting badly in the stretch. He’ll run well, but I feel he’s best suited to the summer classics.
7. Audible – He’s talented and has an amazing stretch kick, but he tends to fall off the bit early, and that will get him nothing but traffic troubles here.
8. Good Magic – Nice colt, and he might have been the favorite in most other years, but he seems a cut below the top horses in this stacked Derby. I also wonder how much he wants 10 furlongs after an uninspiring final furlong in the Blue Grass Stakes.
9. Noble Indy – Gutsy colt, but his style is going to leave him vulnerable here. With so many others wanting to be on or close to the lead, he’s got his work cut out for him.
10. My Boy Jack – Loves to hang after making big moves on the turn. I don’t see that changing in the Derby.
11. Solomini – Very quirky colt has run out of time to straighten up his act.
12. Quip – Another good solid colt, but he hasn’t proven good enough to match strides with the top flight. He’s had slow paces in his last two and will likely be forced out of his element trying to keep up with a much faster one in the Derby.
13. Flameaway – He’s another solid horse, but he will be too close to a quick pace. He’s as hard-trying as they come, so he’ll fight for it, but in a crop brimming with freakish talent, he seems to be in a bit over his head.
14. Free Drop Billy – One-paced grinder who looks best against inferior horses.
15. Bravazo – Another speed horse trained by D. Wayne Lukas. Got lucky in the Risen Star. Won’t get that lucky in the Derby.
16. Promises Fulfilled – He will go as far as he can before getting fried by the pressure on the front end.
17. Lone Sailor – A deep closer who is in over his head.
18. Enticed – Wants no part of 10 furlongs.
19. Firenze Fire – Another who wants no part of the distance.
20. Gronkowski – Really don’t even know why he’s in here. A win would be a HUGE surprise.