Pugh: Why I won't be betting Belmont Stakes favorite Tacitus

In a 2019 Belmont Stakes absent a Kentucky Derby winner, one would think favoritism then falls naturally to the returning Preakness Stakes hero. But that’s unlikely to be the case this year with Tacitus the anticipated morning line favorite at Tuesday’s post position draw.

Yet as nice as Tacitus has looked in recent works, and as much as connections and handicappers alike have touted him, I still don’t see the son of Tapit as a wise bet for the win spot.

There are several reasons for that stance, chief among them that Tacitus’ running style isn’t historically successful in the 1 1/2-mile Belmont. Going back to 2009, seven of the last 10 winners ran on or near the pace. Those that did not were Creator, Summer Bird and Drosselmeyer. Of those three, only Summer Bird was able to narrow a gap of larger than 3 1/2 lengths with half a mile left to run after closing from six lengths out at the mile call.

In the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), with a little more than a quarter of a mile left to run, Tacitus sat eight lengths from the front. In the Wood Memorial (G2), with 3/8ths of a mile left to run, he had seven lengths left to make up. And then in the Kentucky Derby, with a quarter mile left he was still more than four lengths behind. 

The one-run closer has not been overly successful in the Belmont Stakes. Sometimes, the style works against horses when jockeys attempt to move too soon, detracting from the final kick that makes those types more potent at shorter distances. Mine That Bird and Orb come to mind.

Tacitus’ allure as a Belmont contender, in addition to his breeding and connections, is the illusion that the Belmont trip will work perfectly for him. But he didn’t necessarily get a bad trip in the Derby. It took a fair bit of weaving through traffic, but that comes with the territory of his running style, and rivals never seemed to stop Tacitus to the point that he lost forward momentum.

His running line reads as: “Tacitus steadied while unsettled behind horses first time through the stretch, found a better rhythm through the middle stages, came five wide off the far turn, exchanged brushes with Game Winner late and finished with good courage.”

Improbable was made the Preakness Stakes favorite, by the way, off an uneventful Derby trip and finished out of the money at Pimlico.

One other reason Tacitus might not be a good Belmont pick? The public has rarely settled upon the right horse as the favorite. The only two post time top choices to win in the last 10 years were American Pharoah and Justify, both Triple Crown winners.

The betting public came close with Tapwrit and Union Rags. Often, the Belmont winner is among the top choices. Rarely is he the favorite, and of course, this isn’t a Triple Crown year.

As for the logical follow up here — who is a good pick for the Belmont Stakes? — I’ll be playing the Preakness winner War of Will and Tax. Both sport the right tactical running style and pedigree to win Saturday’s classic.