Pugh: 5 bold Belmont Stakes weekend predictions

Outside of the Breeders’ Cup, there is no bigger weekend in American racing than the Belmont Stakes Festival, with a number of top horses across all divisions gathering in New York for the three-day bonanza.

So days like Saturday — with eight Grade 1s on the docket — beg for some predictions. Bold ones...

Here we go:

Tacitus will be upset

I wrote earlier this week that morning line Belmont Stakes favorite Tacitus will not be my top pick. I’m counting on his closing style being a detriment in race where tactical runners more often succeed.

It has been speculated that going 12 furlongs, Tacitus could end up closer to the pace than we normally see him. But post 10 doesn’t help in that respect — not with all the speed to his inside ready to jump from the gate. He could well get caught wide if trying to gun it a bit more under jockey Jose Ortiz.

Meanwhile, Tax and War of Will both have distance-favoring pedigrees and should get the type of trip to excel. Special circumstances contributed to War of Will’s only defeats on dirt, so I expect him to continue giving a consistent effort, while Tax has run much better around two turns in New York than he showed in the Kentucky Derby.

McKinzie rolls from off the pace

Bob Baffert-trained McKinzie may be a close second choice on the morning line, but I have a feeling the public will side strongly with last-out Grade 1-winning sprinter Mitole in the Met Mile (G1). It’s tough to argue with a six-race winning streak, after all. But I’m going to try it.

We all know Mitole is fast and — leaving Kentucky Derby weekend — plenty proven. Problem is, so are several others in this race, and this time he will have to go a furlong farther. Running on the lead with Promises Fulfilled, among others, should soften Mitole up for those primed to kick on late — and McKinzie fits in that category.

On two occasions now, we have seen that McKinzie can take back off the pace and unleash a completely dizzying late punch.

First it came in the Dec. 26 Malibu Stakes (G1), a 7-furlong sprint where he went from 4 1/2 lengths behind with three furlongs left to 4 3/4 lengths clear at the wire. That’s nine lengths in 3/8 of a mile.

The second occasion was in his last race, the Alysheba (G2). Bogged down on the inside, he dropped 1 1/2 lengths off the leaders before tipped out to shoot past, opening up a 4 3/4-length margin at the wire.

I’m expecting similar on Saturday.

Catalina Cruiser goes down again

Catalina Cruiser is the big favorite in the Friday's True North (G2), but after his uninspiring performance in his last effort when shipping out of California, I will take a shot against off the layoff.

Recruiting Ready and Nicodemus both show good performances over the Belmont main track. Considering not all take to “Big Sandy,” that’s a major plus.

Catalina Cruiser is likely to send from post 3, but I highly doubt he’ll get an easy lead in this spot.

Recruiting Ready hasn’t won since the Gulfstream Park Sprint, but he ran very well to be second to Met Mile (G1) contender Firenze Fire in a recent stakes.

Nicodemus scould get the setup. The only question left to answer is class. He should get at least a piece, especially if Catalina Cruiser proves vulnerable again.

Mind “Control” of the Woody Stephens

In races under a mile, Mind Control sports a sterling record, only losing once in a maiden outing. Since then, his only two defeats were a second around a one-turn mile in the Gotham Stakes (G3) and a seventh going 1 1/16 miles in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

In his last outing, the Bay Shore Stakes (G3), the Gregg Sacco trainee bested the fleet-footed Bob Baffert sprinter Much Better and Swale Stakes (G3) winner Call Paul. The latter subsequently won the listed Danzig Stakes at Penn National. 

With a fair bit of early speed in Saturday's Woody Stephens (G1), I’m expecting that Mind Control will sit in a pressing position before making a winning move that should propel him on to a summer of racing at Saratoga.

Sonneteer battles Rocketry in Brooklyn

Highly regarded marathoner Rocketry, who broke Man o’ War’s Belmont track record for 1 1/2 miles last year, has struggled to find his way back to the winner’s circle in 2019. However, his connections believe that he is ready to put his best hoof forward on Saturday.

Given that this race marks his first time back at the marathon distance, I’m inclined to believe them. But I do think he’ll face a stiff test from Sonneteer, who recently found 12 furlongs much to his liking when winning the Champions Day Marathon Overnight Stakes at Churchill Downs. He, as with Rocketry, also set a track record.

Unlike Rocketry, Sonneteer doesn’t have any Belmont experience. But typically big, long-striding route runners enjoy the sweeping turns. Next, we’ll see if he can sweep by the competition as a 10-1 morning line shot in the Brooklyn (G2), the final race on Saturday’s card.