Point/Counterpoint: Cathryn Sophia vs Songbird

Songbird is the reigning Champion Juvenile Filly. Cathryn Sophia is the new unbeaten and untested upstart. It may surprise you to know which one I think may turn out to be better. Today in an epic renewal of the Point/Counterpoint rivalry, I duke it out with Editor, Brian Zipse, of Zipse at the Track, in debating the star quality of both star fillies.

Laura: Songbird wowed us all Saturday in Santa Anita’s Las Virgenes. She was dominant and dazzling in her utter demolition of the field. It is quite apparent that the champion daughter of Medaglia d’Oro has taken the time off and the new year in stride. However, does that mean that she is still the best?  

Brian: I agree, Saturday’s performance was everything that could have been hoped for, and more. It clearly demonstrated Songbird is every bit the filly that we saw in 2015, only more mature. Considering how dominant she was last year, proving it in Grade 1 races, including the Breeders’ Cup, I have a hard time answering that with anything other than … Yes, she is still the best.

Laura: Last year, nobody would have questioned Songbird’s claim atop her division. She was completely undisputed, but with the New Year has come a new challenger ... Cathryn Sophia.  

Brian: I like Cathryn Sophia, I really do, but at this point, I have to say that it is way too early to call her a challenger for Songbird. Frankly, I don’t think it is fair to the connections of either filly to put them in the same sentence right now.

Laura: As dominant as Songbird was, one could argue that Cathryn Sophia was even more so. Cathryn Sophia won the only two starts of her juvenile year by a combined 29 lengths, while never so much as getting a cross thrown at her. Songbird had four starts during her juvenile year, and still she couldn’t approach the number of lengths that Cathryn Sophia has built up. 

Brian: Average margin of victory right now does go to Cathryn Sophia, but it really is a pretty meaningless stat, in my opinion. You know as well as I do that there is a huge difference in the races that Cathryn Sophia has run in at Parx, Laurel, and Gulfstream, compared to what Songbird has already accomplished. Not only is there a sizable chasm in the quality of competition faced, but also, Songbird is proven around two-turns while the Servis filly has only sprinted to this point. Until she stretches out, and faces quality, there are questions to be answered.

 
Laura: Yes, we all know that Songbird has faced off against grade one competition, which will be used to explain why she doesn’t have as large victories. That is a fine point, but what is forgotten with that point is that Songbird has never faced adversity.  

Brian: It depends what you mean by adversity, I suppose. I would argue that in facing no one of quality, and not having not yet run farther than sprints, it is Cathryn Sophia who has not yet faced adversity. A fast, multiple stakes winning filly in Pretty N Cool looked her in the eye one afternoon, and the class of Songbird left her behind. I’m not sure Pretty N Cool has been the same since.

 
Laura: In every single one of Songbird’s five starts she has jumped out of the gate and shot straight to the lead. She has never been boxed or hemmed in, nor has she ever had to take dirt in her face. So, there is no telling what she will do when she is finally asked the question. Of course, you can claim that Pretty N Cool “pushed” her in the Del Mar Debutante, but that is reaching just a bit.  

Brian: Laura, that’s because Songbird is so good.

 
Laura: Cathryn Sophia has demonstrated that she can handle being hemmed in, stopping and starting, and a whole ton of dirt to the face. In the Forward Gal, that is exactly what happened. The adversity didn’t faze her, in fact, it seemed to encourage her. She went on to win that race by over five lengths, pricking her ears at the end.  

Brian: Like I said, I do like the potential of Cathryn Sophia. I have seen each of her races, have been impressed, and I believe that she has the chance to be a Grade 1 filly. At this point, though, I’m afraid she is very much still an unknown quantity. Until she faces the type of horses that Songbird has already dispatched of, she will remain a, ‘might be a good one’. As far as facing Songbird in the flesh anytime soon -- I’m afraid that would a classic case of too much too soon

 
Laura: Cathryn Sophia also has the edge in numbers to start the year. She earned a 104 Equibase figure, a 99 Bris, and Beyer gave her a 91. Even with her blowout, Songbird earned a 102, 95, and 87, respectively.  

Brian: That’s seems like a fine illustration of the meaninglessness of numbers. If you are asking me to believe that the filly who won the Forward Gal is better than the filly who won the Las Virgenes – sorry, you are barking up the wrong tree.

 
Laura: Yes, Songbird is the champion, and yes, she’ll need to be beaten before anyone can claim her throne, but it looks like Cathryn Sophia is just the filly to do it. She has a slight edge in numbers, suggesting she’s every bit as fast. She has proven her versatility by coming from behind just as well as she races on the lead. Come Oaks time, I think we’ll be seeing a new queen of the fillies ... Cathryn Sophia.

Brian: Yes, Songbird is the champion, and on Saturday, she could not have illustrated just why she is a champion any better. It seems to me her only competition must come from older mares, or the best of the boys, because there are not any three-year-old fillies that can compete, in my opinion. I wish the best for Cathryn Sophia. Hopefully she will capitalize on her potential and talent, and enjoy a highly successful career.