Parallels between Justify, Derby winner Big Brown are striking

Hall of Famer Mike Smith, the second jockey to sit aboard the son of Scat Daddy, has already compared emerging 2018 Kentucky Derby prospect Justify to Easy Goer.

Others have likened the colt to late developers Curlin and fellow Bob Baffert trainee Bodemeister. While Justify has much in common with those two, who also burst onto the Derby scene late, they came away with placings in Kentucky Derby, but not wins.

Justify strikes me instead as most similar to 2008 Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown.

Unlike Justify, he debuted on turf as a 2-year-old. But not back to the races until March 5 of his sophomore season, the son of Boundary romped in an off-the-turf allowance at Gulfstream Park.

He, as with Justify, had everyone talking. The conversation only intensified after another blowout performance in his one and only Kentucky Derby prep, the Florida Derby.

Big Brown did not start his career off with a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure like Justify. However, turf numbers are notoriously lower than their dirt counterparts for maidens at the same distance. In his next start, the off-the-turf allowance win, Big Brown recorded an eye-popping 106 Beyer, then duplicated the number in the Florida Derby running from the outside post.

Justify earned a 104 in his debut at seven furlongs. He followed that effort up with a 101 going two turns, and the number could have been higher had he been allowed to stride out late.

Now, after that impressive allowance, he will look to make one single entrance on the Kentucky Derby trail -- same as Big Brown -- with one of the major preps like the Santa Anita Derby on his radar. There, we will see if he can handle the best of the crop. Personally, I have no doubts about him in that department.

If Justify ends up shipping, for a race like the Arkansas Derby, I can see an almost certain victory, such as when Bodemeister and Curlin took a similar path. If he remains in California, Justify will duke it out with multiple Grade 1 winner Bolt D’Oro. There, he should contend, but it is what comes after that point that remains a question.

Is Justify good enough to break the 136-year-old curse of Apollo, becoming the first horse since 1882 to when the Derby without racing at age 2? Normally, I’d say not a snowball’s chance in heck -- not with kind of history working against him.

But after just two races, Justify has got me believing he's not another Bodemeister or Curlin -- a Derby runner up. Barring a setback, I believe Justify compares best to Big Brown. He's one who could win on the first Saturday in May.