No conspiracy here: Audible not a good Belmont 2018 fit

Funny things, those conspiracy theories. There could always be a slight bit of truth to them, but baseless claims obscure the finer points.

So here we are with the 2018 Belmont Stakes triangle of Justify, Audible and the owners they share: Winstar Farms/China Horse Club.

After Justify crossed the finish line a half length to the good in the Preakness Stakes, the theorists came out of the woodwork. Apparently, the speculation says, owners of the dual classic winner would avoid running Florida Derby winner Audible in the third leg of the Triple Crown to create an easier path for Justify.

But it hasn't been said — only suggested based on trainer Todd Pletcher’s history, and Audible’s third-place Kentucky Derby finish — what path the colt would take out of his May 5 race. But Pletcher termed it only a possibility.

Since the Kentucky Derby, Audible hasn’t logged a single work. Considering the Belmont is fewer than three weeks out, I would have expected a horse who is pointing toward what would be the longest race of his life would be breezing.

Last year, Pletcher worked 2017 Belmont Stakes winner Tapwrit two weeks after he ran in the Kentucky Derby. Tapwrit then drilled twice more, accounting for three total works, two coming at five furlongs, before taking the Belmont.

On top of that, there is no logical reason to think Audible would relish the Belmont’s 12 furlongs. First off, he’s already out-run his pedigree. There is no telling if he would continue to do so by getting the trip in the Belmont Stakes.

Secondly, the Belmont is not a race where horses of his running style thrive. Due to its distance, a much more moderate pace is typically set, which allows horses that run close to, or on the lead, to conserve their energy for the stretch drive. Also, due to the long, sweeping turns, many jockeys make their moves much too soon, especially if they are on a late running horse like Audible, in order to reach contention. Unfortunately, that leaves the horse flat in the stretch drive.

To be quite honest, if Audible did not have the same ownership as Justify, I would not need to sit here and bring up all of these very logical reasons as to why Audible may not run. However, because he is, the conspiracy theories sparked.

Of all the WinStar/China Horse Club charges, Justify has the best chance to win the Belmont Stakes. He possesses running style and has seemingly bounced out of the Preakness well.

These owners already showed a willingness to run other contenders against Justify when they started Tampa Bay Derby winner Quip against him last weekend at Pimlico. So it didn't work out on the slop, as Quip finished last of eight. Who's to say he wouldn't have contended on fast dirt?

There’s no reason to think that if Audible is physically ready for the Belmont — and deemed by Pletcher a real contender — that he wouldn’t get a chance to run. Until then, some very recent history proves Big Sandy might not be his best fit, regardless of connections and what’s at stake.