Justify a Kentucky Derby 2018 draw winner, but who lost?
There weren’t many surprises at Tuesday's post position draw, but some very big winners walked away with happy connections.
The Big Winner: Justify
The strapping, undefeated son of Scat Daddy won the post position draw just as he has everything else. He was assigned gate seven, same as Street Sense in 2007. That colt ended a jinx in becoming the first horse to win the Kentucky Derby after taking the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Is it fate that Justify, who is attempting to end the so-called Apollo Curse, should wind up in the same gate?
On a more practical note, Justify is perfectly positioned to win. The two main speedballs, Flameaway and Promises Fulfilled, are both to his inside, while the other pressers in the field are positioned in posts 13 and outward. The post sets him up for a perfect trip with little kickback should the favorite break well.
Other Winners
Bolt D’Oro, Mendelssohn and Hofburg were among other lucky horses in the post draw. Being a stalker/presser type, Bolt d'Oro has no real speed to his inside from the No. 11 until Justify. That luxury should allow jockey Victor Espinoza to break and assess before committing to any particular game plan. It also offers the ability for Bolt D’Or to drop in behind the main speed and relax before coming with his run.
By drawing the 14, Mendelssohn sits outside of Bravazo, who could also show speed. He will have to break cleanly to clear Justify and get a clear pressing position, but this spot allows him to stay in the clear at the very least. That is important because this horse has never experienced kickback. Now, he doesn’t have to worry about that, and should get a clear trip on the outside.
Post position for a deep closer is not a huge concern, and that is the case with Hofburg. However, getting good draw certainly never hurts. In the No. 9 hole, the lightly raced colt will be afforded the same luxury as Bolt D’Oro, with the ability for the jockey to wait and assess the situation before committing to anything. The same cannot be said for Free Drop Billy, who drew the No. 2 post, and will have to walk out of the gate or risk getting slammed around in the first quarter mile.
The Big Loser: Good Magic
This may not be a popular opinion, but based on the horses around him, I simply cannot see the son of Curlin working out a good trip.
Drawing post No. 6 would normally be considered a pretty decent draw, but in this case, Good Magic is situated with Justify, a very fast gate horse set on being close to the lead directly to his outside. On his inside he has Flameaway and Promises Fulfilled who will also be intent on the lead. Being that Good Magic typically likes to stalk the pace but does not have the gate speed of the three above, he could easily wind up being sandwiched.
Should that situation arise, Good Magic will get shuffled farther back than he has been in his career and will be in among large crowd of horses. This is a horse that has only won when things go his way, and that isn’t likely to occur with this post.
The Undesirables
Promises Fulfilled, Flameaway, Noble Indy and Magnum Moon all lost their respective draws.
In the case of the two speedsters, Promises Fulfilled and Flameaway, not only did they draw on the inside, but they drew right next to one other. This sets up for a very heated speed duel, which could fry both horses.
Noble Indy lost for the exact opposite reason as Flameaway and Promises Fulfilled. Where they are close to the inside and will be forced to fly out of the gate to avoid trouble, Noble Indy drew way outside in the 18. He isn’t a horse who needs the lead, but he will want to be close, and from that post he will likely get hung very wide, trying to keep up with a very quick pace. Losing ground, while trying to stay close to a hot pace is surefire way to sap a horse of energy by the time he hits the stretch.
Magnum Moon lost much for the same reasons as Noble Indy. However, there is one other thing that concerns me, and that is Magnum Moon's lack of focus. Being in the auxiliary gate puts him close to 100,000-plus screaming fans who will go ballistic as soon as those gates open. Magnum Moon has shied away from stationary object in the infield during his last few starts. Unless that has been rectified in the three weeks since the Arkansas Derby, it remains possible that we see a gawking Magnum Moon drifting right out of the gate.