Is history against Fountain of Youth favorite Good Magic?

Many will put -- or, in some cases keep -- Good Magic on top of their respective 2018 Kentucky Derby lists should he win Saturday's Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes.

The decision is understandable, with a top horse winning a prestigious prep. But should it be?

For all of its recognition, the Fountain of Youth historically is not one of the key preps in which to look for a future Kentucky Derby winner. Since 1990, only two winners of the Fountain of Youth have gone on to wear the roses: Orb (2013) and Thunder Gulch (1995).

Orb ran his Kentucky Derby on sloppy going and never won another race, which makes this writer wonder how legitimate that performance actually was. That would leave Thunder Gulch, on the other hand, who won his over a fair and fast track, before taking the Belmont and Travers Stakes. But it has been more than 20 years.

Why is this all important? Because there are several people who will have their eyes trained on Good Magic, Strike Power or any other Fountain of Youth contender emerging a winner from Saturday's race.

Obviously, most will be expecting a win from Good Magic, and rightfully so. He’s looked fantastic in his works, comes off an impressive Breeders' Cup Juvenile victory and sits at 7-5 on the morning line. However, given the lack of success Fountain of Youth winners have had in the Kentucky Derby, it may unwise to leap to the conclusion that he's the horse to beat on the first Saturday in May.

The history doesn't apply just to Fountain of Youth winners, but also the race's runners as a whole. Since 1990, two horses that ran in the Fountain of Youth but did not win wore the roses. That gives the Fountain of Youth a whopping four Kentucky Derby winners since 1990, which doesn’t exactly inspire confidence considering how the Florida Derby over the same track has produced well as a final prep.

Good Magic, despite having an excellent pedigree for this distance, is by a sire who has had several very good, influential 3-year-olds, but none that were good enough or lucky enough to take the Kentucky Derby. Also, in the sake of being fair, he still only has one win. It was in the Breeders’ Cup, but there can be no mistake made that his biggest competitor was the victim of a brutal trip.

Besides that, Good Magic did finish second in the Champagne Stakes, but that was to a horse that hasn't proven to be among top Kentucky Derby contenders. So, it is relatively hard to know what to make of the Chad Brown trainee.

I know several will feel that a Fountain of Youth win would validate his status, and it might to a certain extent, but not completely. The reason being is due to the fact that this edition of the Fountain of Youth isn’t exactly what many would call strong. The second choice, Strike Power, is an unknown going two turns, and Free Drop Billy was soundly beaten by Audible in the Grade 2 Holy Bull.

So, what will my thoughts be if Good Magic wins this weekend?

He's a good horse and has a big future. However, with so much history going against him, even with an impressive victory, I do not see as a Kentucky Derby winner.