Is Hot Springs the place for Classic Empire?

Classic Empire, the reigning Juvenile Champion, has once again been re-routed.

After putting in his second timed work at the Winding Oaks training facility in Ocala, because of refusing to work twice at Palm Meadows, trainer Mark Casse announced that the finicky son of Pioneerof the Nile was no longer pointing towards a start in the Blue Grass Stakes. Instead, Classic Empire would aim to make his final Kentucky Derby prep in Oaklawn Park’s Arkansas Derby.

Casse sited a few reasons for the change in plans. Firstly, the Arkansas Derby gives his charge an extra week to prepare. Secondly, he gets to avoid locking horns with top rated Kentucky Derby contender, McCraken, who is unbeaten in four starts. However, do those two reasons make this the best course for Classic Empire?

There are a few drawbacks to Casse’s new plan, namely the likelihood of running into another undefeated Kentucky Derby contender, Malagacy. The son of Shackleford just recently took the Rebel Stakes, the local prep for the Arkansas Derby in his two-turn debut. That day, he sat close to a hot pace, and despite having very little foundation, he was the only horse to walk away from it unscathed. There is every chance that he will improve off that performance when he runs in the Arkansas Derby, and could prove quite tough to handle for Classic Empire, who might be a little short for the race.

Secondly, there is the fact that Classic Empire has never competed over Oaklawn’s surface before. He has competed at Keeneland, and managed to take the Breeders’ Futurity (GI) before capping off his season with a win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. There is no telling how he’ll handle the surface in Arkansas, and in getting so little out of his only start to date in 2017, he’ll need everything to go perfectly at Oaklawn. That includes handling the surface.

Finally, you have the location of Arkansas to consider. Classic Empire has been based in Florida as he trains for the Kentucky Derby, and he hasn’t had the need to ship long distances. While he would’ve had to ship for the Blue Grass at Keeneland, he could’ve stayed there to train after the race, just a short ride away from Churchill Downs.

With his current schedule, he will need to ship from Florida to Arkansas to Kentucky, which adds an extra trip. Can the colt that so easily came undone during the van ride to Gulfstream Park handle the extra shipping before the Kentucky Derby?

All of this is not to say that this isn’t the best route for Classic Empire. It very well could be. Like Casse mentioned, he gets to avoid the top-rated Kentucky Derby contender, while also getting an extra week of preparation. In addition to those two benefits, the success that the Arkansas Derby has had as a prep for the Kentucky Derby cannot be ignored.

With this knowledge, what are your thoughts? Should they have stayed the Blue Grass course, or is the Arkansas Derby the best prep for Classic Empire?