Is Breeders’ Cup qualifying skewed against older horses?

With the release of 2018 Breeders’ Cup pre-entries, and the subsequent impact on Monday’s post-position draw, arrived some reason to argue whether the system is working, and whether 3-year-olds have too much of an edge when it comes to qualifying for over-subscribed races such as this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic.

First, a bit about how Breeders’ Cup entries are sorted:

Of course, the “Win and You’re In” challenge series victors get first priority, along with a fees-paid trip to their respective championship race. Simple enough.

The Breeders’ Cup then grants entry to horses that have earned the most points throughout the year by winning or placing in graded stakes competition.

Finally, there is a human element, as a committee sorts out those horses that haven’t earned enough points to qualify and sets preferences. In the case of this year, Bravazo, Gunnevera, Seeking the Soul, Collected and Toast of New York were on the outside of the prospective 14-horse Classic when pre-entries were revealed.

There was plenty of chatter about how this system is designed. Detractors pointing out that a 3-year-old running only against its own crop receives just as many points as an older horse running in an open race.

However, I’d argue in response that the Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series races offset that advantage for the sophomores. The automatic qualifiers began in June with the Stephen Foster Handicap (G1) at Churchill Downs and ran through the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) in September at Belmont Park.

During that timeframe, however, there is only one race restricted to 3-year-olds designated as a Challenge Race, Monmouth Park’s Haskell Invitational (G1). That leaves five others completely open, and each were won by older horses. 

This gives older horses five chances to gain an automatic berth into the Classic, which this year they did. In the Jockey Club Gold Cup, UAE Derby winner Mendelssohn did challenge his elders, however the older horse Discreet Lover prevailed.

So, yes, the points system does give 3-year-olds an advantage when it comes to making the Classic. But I consider the Challenge Series events equalizers.

In most years, this doesn’t matter, as the Classic hasn’t filled since 2014. When a Triple Crown winner is retired, and the division determined wide-open, the product is a larger field. Connections of Collected and Toast of New York, the Classic’s also-eligibles, will await any potential defections until the scratch deadline, and deservedly so.

Neither horse managed to win a race in 2018, with Collected finishing seventh in the Pegasus World Cup and second to last in the PA Derby Champion Stakes in his most recent outing.

So, should someone ask me if the selection process the Breeders’ Cup uses needs change, I’d say, unequivocally, no. It both rewards those 3-year-olds who raced the entire year, while gives opportunity to older horses that tend to take on lighter campaigns but have to face open company.

The result is a Classic that this year includes the best selection of 1 1/4-mile horses still in training, and isn’t that, after all, the goal?