Grading out last week's Kentucky Derby 2019 preps
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Photo:
Eclipse Sportswire
A single Kentucky Derby 2019 prep, the Smarty Jones Stakes, ran last week. However, that’s not the only race that merits a closer look after Hidden Scroll’s highly discussed debut victory on the Pegasus World Cup undercard. I believe it’s clear which was the more impressive race.
Date Run: Jan. 25, 2019
Winner: Gray Attempt
On the Board: Long Range Toddy, Boldor
Distance/Time: 1 mile in 1:36.94
Speed Figure: 110 TimeformUS
Grade: B
Analysis: Winning by a neck in a listed stakes at Oaklawn Park in late January isn’t going to impress anyone. But this early in the game, we aren’t necessarily looking to be blown away. We are looking for solid efforts that can set the horses up for steady progressions through the spring.
That is exactly the type of performance Gray Attempt gave in the Smarty Jones Stakes.
Clearing the field and going directly from the lead from the widest post on a short run to the first turn put Gray Attempt at an immediate disadvantage. Clocking his first quarter and half in :23.12 and :46.86, under pressure from Boldor and multiple stakes winner Long Range Toddy, also didn’t help.
Gray Attempt held sway, refusing to let anyone by. That in in itself is impressive. Couple that with a solid early pace that saw him used from the moment the gate sprung, and you have a solid 3-year-old debut for a horse that had never tried two turns.
The son of Graydar has talent, speed, and grit. It’s logical also to have reservations about his ability to handle 10 furlongs. Being by Graydar, a brilliantly fast miler to middle distance horse, and out of a Consolidator mare screams miler.
Race 4, Maiden Special Weight
Date Run: Jan 26, 1019
Winner: Hidden Scroll
On the Board: High Amplitude, Ranger Up
Distance/Time: 1 mile in 1:34.82
Speed Figure: 119 TimeformUS
Grade: A
Analysis: Yes, I gave the maiden winner and A, because it isn’t every day you see a first-time starter roll home by 14 lengths in a sub-1:35 for a mile race at Gulfstream Park.
In Hidden Scroll’s tour de force maiden victory, not only did he record one of the fastest mile times by a 3-year-old at Gulfstream Park, he recorded the highest TimeformUS number of his class. The 119 figure designated to Hidden Scroll tops the best figures submitted by both Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Game Winner and his unbeaten stablemate, Improbable.
As good as this single-race performance was, however, it’s difficult to glean what this means in terms of Hidden Scroll’s overall talent. The track was rated sloppy and sealed before the start. Especially early Saturday at Gulfstream there appeared to be a significant bias toward front-runners. So how much was Hidden Scroll aided by the track?
I have to believe both circumstances contributed, but I also can’t believe they solely accounted for Hidden Scroll running the fastest mile on the card. He relished the off going, but 1:34.82 for a 3-year-old debut is impressive no matter the circumstances.
At this point, Hidden Scroll could be any kind of horse. Being that his trainer is Bill Mott, I don’t see him being rushed into any major spots.
He could be the next Social Inclusion, or he could be another Justify. I’m excited to find out.
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