Grading out last week's Kentucky Derby 2019, Oaks preps
Along with a pair of points-paying 2019 Kentucky Derby and Oaks preps, a Santa Anita Park feature to open the weekend provided more to consider as the spring classics near. And with that, the picture of who’s a contender and pretender heading into May became a bit more muddled. Let’s start with the best…
Friday’s Santa Anita feature
Date Run: March 1, 2019
Winner: Roadster
On the Board: Nolo Contesto, Manhattan Up
Distance/Time: 1 mile; 1:37.53
TimeformUS Figure: 108
Grade: A
Analysis: It was only an allowance optional claiming race, but after a breathing issue sidelined Roadster following the Del Mar Futurity (G1), this marked a triumphant return.
The main track, closed for a good part of the week for evaluation, appeared to play slow on Friday, evidenced by some lackluster splits and final times leading up to this Race 8 feature. Despite that, Roadster completed his final quarter mile in a solid :24.47.
Given the lengthy layoff, I wouldn’t have been surprised to see a short horse, but that obviously was not the case here. The speed figure leaves much to be desired, but given six months away from the races, it could also signal imminent improvement when the son of Quality Road returns in a major Derby prep.
Date Run: March 2, 2019
Winner: Code of Honor
On the Board: Bourbon War, Vekoma
Distance/Time: 1 1/16th miles; 1:43.85
TimeformUS Figure: 118
Grade: B
Analysis: After disappointing as the Mucho Macho Man Stakes favorite, Code of Honor seemingly returned to form with his win in the Fountain of Youth. However, I say seemingly because I believe favorable circumstances set up his rally.
Code of Honor flew late along with Bourbon War, but I believe the 1-2 finishers’ speed was a bit of an illusion — rather, a factor of passing tired horses trying to get to the first finish line at Gulfstream Park.
Pushed by the longshot Gladiator King, Hidden Scroll went in 22.80 and 45.69 to begin the race. Down the stretch, the pace collapsed, and the first two finishers picked up the pieces.
Find proof of that in the final quarter mile (26.42 seconds) and sixteenth of mile (7.01 seconds).
Despite his defeat, I feel like Hidden Scroll ran the best race here. He was beaten fewer than three lengths and only a neck back of hanging on for third.
Date Run: March 2, 2019
Winner: Jeltrin
On the Board: Cookie Dough, Champagne Anyone
Distance/Time: 1 mile; 1:36.83
TimeformUS Figure: 101
Grade: C-
Analysis: Jeltrin, the longest shot on the board for trainer Alexis Delgado, entered with only a maiden claiming victory to her name. And because of that, it’s difficult to imagine this victory as more than a fluke moving forward.
The story Saturday wasn’t Jeltrin’s big upset, however, but rather Jaywalk’s big flop.
Trainer John Servis appeared calm and cool after the Davona Dale, but after seeing the champion filly flatten out after tracking mediocre opening splits, I’m not buying it.
Jaywalk is, or at least was, a star. She ran brilliantly fast at age 2 and at her best towers over these Davona Dale rivals. Is she capable of doing it again at 3? I think so — with a certain trip.
Jaywalk wired the field in three of her four wins in 2018. The only time she didn’t set the pace was when chasing insanely fast splits going 5 1/2 furlongs in her stakes debut at Monmouth Park.
Last weekend, we saw Jaywalk throttle off moderate opening splits of 24.21, 47.41 and 1:12.00. That’s far slower than she is used to running, and horses who like to set their own tempo can be impacted when that’s not the case. Fort Larned and Rachel Alexandra, at least in her 4-year-old season, come to mind.
Servis may have used this race as an experiment and/or schooling opportunity to see what Jaywalk would do if forced to rate. Good news is, we know from the White Clay Creek she can sit off fast splits. Bad news, it appears, is Jaywalk may not run her absolute best unless she’s the one dictating terms early.