Grading out last week's 2019 Kentucky Derby preps

On a weekend with just one Kentucky Derby 2019 prep scheduled, we were treated to two dynamite races as the Rebel Stakes (G2) split to accommodate California horses who had targeted the cancelled San Felipe Stakes. Here’s how they graded out…

Rebel Stakes Division 1

Date Run: March 16, 2019

Winner: Long Range Toddy

On the Board: Improbable, Galilean

Distance/Time: 8.5 furlongs; 1:42.49

TimeformUS Figure: 117

Grade: A, A+

Analysis: I typically grade these races as they relate to the winner. Here, the Top 2 deserve special mentions, and yes, that’s a runner-up getting the better score.

In my column following the Southwest Stakes (G3), I mentioned that the only horse that I though had any potential to move forward from that effort was Long Range Toddy. He did that in a big way while also capitalizing on favorable circumstances the way a good horse should. 

As nice as Long Range Toddy ran, I feel that Improbable was better.

Racehorses are creatures of habit and routine. Mess with that, and you can throw them off their games. Trainer Bob Baffert had Improbable and Game Winner ready to run last week at Santa Anita. So not only did they have to wait an extra week following the type of workout pattern that would lead into a race, but the duo had to leave California, too.

While this didn’t seem to really faze either horse, it’s possible those circumstances adding up contributed to narrow defeats for previously unbeaten 3-year-olds. In addition, Improbable ran wide through his entire race yet still managed to finish up quickly while battling Long Range Toddy

It was obvious that once Improbable made the lead, he tired. However, he should improve with that the first race off a layoff. Improbable gets my A+. Long Range Toddy deservingly scores an A as well.

Rebel Stakes Division 2

Date Run: March 16, 2019

Winner: Omaha Beach

On the Board: Game Winner, Gunmetal Gray

Distance/Time: 8.5 Furlongs; 1:42.42

TimeformUS Figure: 119

Grade: A+

Analysis: On the flip side, I do believe Omaha Beach ran a better race than Game Winner to score here.

While Game Winner certainly gave a fitness edge to his fellow California shipper, remember that he had already run at — and won at — the Grade 1 level three times. Omaha Beach had never gone up against a race winner until the Rebel.

The Richard Mandella trainee turned back Game Winner like a more seasoned stakes pro, that after doing more work near the pace in the early stages while Game Winner sat his usual mid-pack, outside, clear trip. 

Despite conserving his energy early, Game Winner couldn’t quite get by Omaha Beach in the stretch. Granted, this 1 1/16-mile race distance isn’t the best setup for the reigning champ. The more distance the better in the future. But he still had the entire length of the stretch to get by in the 1-2 battle and couldn’t quite do it.

Omaha Beach, on the other hand, moved early into longshot Market King’s pace, took over to continue at relatively the same clip, and still had enough left late. He did more than pass while making a major move up in class.