Grading out last week's 2019 Kentucky Derby, Oaks preps

Another weekend of 2019 Kentucky Derby and Oaks qualifiers in the books, and the upsetters got the headlines. But I saw the one favorite who did win having submitted the best performance. Let’s start at the top as we grade the preps…

Sunland Park Oaks

Date Run: Mar. 24, 2019

Winner: Chasing Yesterday

On the Board: K P Slickem, Backflash

TimeformUS Figure: 97 

Grade: B+

Analysis: The time was nothing to write home about, and the figure isn’t either. However, the effort itself was impressive, considering the daughter of Tapit was coming off a near four-month layoff, had her intended season debut pushed back, and had to shift locations to breeze amid the temporary shutdown at Santa Anita.

Remember, only a week ago, Bob Baffert stablemates Game Winner and Improbable suffered their fist career defeats under the same circumstances, albeit against stiffer competition.

When it comes to the race itself, Chasing Yesterday was caught wide through the entire race after she hopped at the start. Despite losing a significant amount of ground, the half-sister to American Pharoah managed to close strongly under mild urging. She clocked her fourth quarter in :24.76 while finishing up her final sixteenth in :6.67. Her figure, as noted, was not impressive, but TimeformUS’ Craig Milkowski said a big contributing factor to that was the tough trip. 

This race represented major stepping stone forward for Chasing Yesterday. Not only did she earn the points needed to compete in the Kentucky Oaks, but there’s good conditioning to be had in a race like that. Also note Sunland Park’s high elevation, which causes thinner air.

Mine That Bird’s 2009 Kentucky Derby-winning connections connected that factor to his upset victory on the first Saturday in May due to him spending so much time training and racing at Sunland. While Chasing Yesterday only shipped in for one race and will prepare for the Oaks back home at Santa Anita, I still view it as a bonus.

Louisiana Derby (G2)

Date Run: Mar. 23, 2019

Winner: By My Standards
On the Board: Spinoff, Sueno

TimeformUS Figure: 117

Grade: B

Analysis: The favorite, War of Will, who was previously unbeaten on dirt, took a funny step just after the break and came out of the race with a mild injury. His connections are confident he will make the Derby, though at this point, the future remains unknown.

Given War of Will’s stumble, the quality of By My Standards’ victory is tough to gauge. The son of Goldencents did take four tries to break his maiden, but he was never out of the Top 3 and made an obvious step forward when finally winning, as his trainer, Bret Calhoun has said. With a similar trip to his last out maiden win, By My Standards proved best once again in his stakes debut, earning a spot in the Kentucky Derby. 

The verdict’s out on Goldencents’ progeny at 1 1/4 miles, but how By My Standards ran in the Louisiana Derby has me thinking that 10 furlongs could be in his range. He finished strong while gunning down Spinoff, who was in full flight and not slowing down, finishing his final eighth in roughly :12.50. 

Spinoff also ran admirably despite a rough trip that included some bumping early and a wide trip throughout. Both look like deserving Derby contenders.

Sunland Derby (G3)

Date Run: Mar. 24, 2019

Winner: Cutting Humor

On the Board: Anothertwistafate, Mucho Gusto

TimeformUS Figure: 112

Grade: C

Analysis: Did the best horse win this one? I was pleasantly surprised by how well Anothertwistafate ran in his switch back to dirt from the synthetic, over which he entered a dominant winner of the El Camino Real Derby.

Anothertwistafate tracked a hot pace set by Mucho Gusto that saw the first two quarters go in :22.76 and :22.87. He did enjoy a ground-saving trip through the early portions but had to check up when Cutting Humor got the jump through the turn to his outside.

Back in stride, Anothertwistafate swung four-wide to make a sweeping move past rivals. Despite being so close to the pace early, once in the clear, Anothertwistafate had a lot of ground to make up, and nearly did when missing Cutting Humor by a neck.

Before this weekend, Cutting Humor had been underwhelming in his performances at Gulfstream Park and Oaklawn. In his only other stakes race, he finished an uninspiring seventh, beaten nearly nine lengths in the Southwest Stakes (G3). I’m banking on his victory in Sunland Derby was due to a perfect storm of circumstances rather than any major improvement.

Fair Grounds Oaks (G2)

Date Run: Mar 23, 2019

Winner: Street Band

On the Board: Liora, Sweet Diane

TimeformUS Figure: 102

Grade: D

Analysis: Here’s another major Oaks prep with an uninspiring finish, prompting a question of who the division leader is at this point.

Jaywalk? She needs to make up for her non-performance in the Davona Dale. Bellafina? She’s been dominant, but her last race against these types resulted in an uninspiring fourth. Chasing Yesterday? She’s still playing catchup.

Serengetti Empress, had she won, could have taken that spot. However, the big Fair Grounds Oaks favorite began a bleeding episode likely at the top of the stretch, where it seemed she had all the momentum then suddenly dropped anchor. Her Oaks prospects are now in serious doubt.

From there, it looked like Liora, sporting blinkers for the first time, would take charge. However, shortly after making the lead, she folded in favor of Street Band. Given the winner’s spotty record versus a class of horses much lower than this, I will again chalk this win up to a perfect storm of circumstances.