Grading out last weekend's 2019 Kentucky Derby, Oaks preps
With Kentucky Derby 2019 and Kentucky Oaks preps run coast to coast over the weekend, I came away surprised in the end with which one graded out best. Let’s start at the top...
Withers Stakes (G3)
Date Run: Feb 2, 2019
Winner: Tax
On the Board: Not That Brady, Our Braintrust
Distance/Time: 9 Furlongs/1:50.23
Speed Figure: 118 TimeformUS
Grade: B+
I nearly settled on an A race here. Numbers-wise, it wasn’t far off the flashy debut of Hidden Scroll last week, which received the highest TimeformUS figure earned by the current 3-year-old crop.
The final time was by far the quickest nine furlongs run over the weekend, and that coupled with the fact they were going 1/16th of a mile farther than other Derby trail runners makes the performance all the better.
Tax didn’t finish up especially quickly, but given the solid pace over the distance, I’m willing to give the son of Arch a pass.
It will be interesting to see what the connections of Tax do off of such a big effort. Do they try to avoid the “bounce” and train up to the Wood Memorial (G2), or does he go right into the next round of preps in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) or Jeff Ruby Stakes (G3)?
Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3)
Date Run: Feb 2, 2019
Winner: Mucho Gusto
On the Board: Gunmetal Gray, Easy Shot
Distance/Time: 8.5 Furlongs/1:41.81
Speed Figure: 111 TimeformUS
Grade: B
This was, by far, the fastest prep of the weekend. However, that’s likely a result of a speed-favoring sloppy track sealed at Santa Anita Park.
Mucho Gusto still ran a solid race, showing a bit of a new dimension when rating kindly early on. He made a bold move around the turn, took the lead and drew away in the stretch.
A final 1/16 of 6.24 seconds under minimal urging means there should be more in the tank, and sets him up to show some progression. He’ll get out of the shadow of stablemates Game Winner and Improbable, likely going out of town for his next race, where Mucho Gusto will be in a better position to win again.
Holy Bull Stakes (G2)
Date Run: Feb 2, 2019
Winner: Harvey Wallbanger
On the Board: Everfast, Maximus Mischief
Distance/Time: 8.5 furlongs/1:43.69
Speed Figure: 106 TimeformUS
Grade: C
This grade pretty much applies to the top three in this race, as Harvey Wallbanger ran well in deep stretch to take the race over longshot Everfast and a tired Maximus Mischief.
Maximus Mischief has taken a lot of heat coming out of this race, but I believe it’s too soon to make a verdict on his Derby dreams. He stalked a close second to Epic Dreamer early in the race through a first half in a snappy :46.76 and six furlongs in 1:10.89. In his first race since the Remsen (G2) back in early December, showing fatigue is understandable. The race should help him gear up for a true showing in his second race of the year.
Harvey Wallbanger, off at 29-1, came rolling home off a maiden win and should appreciate more distance moving forward. Nice horses appear in his past performances, too. Closers haven’t fared particularly well in the Derby’s points era, however.
Swale Stakes (G3)
Date Run: Feb 2, 2019
Winner: Caul Paul
On the Board: Zenden, Topper T
Distance/Time: 7 Furlongs/1:23.43
Speed Figure: 103 TimeformUS
Grade: C-
While not a Derby points race, this event has served as a springboard for many a Fountain of Youth or Florida Derby contender over the years. That doesn’t look to be the case, however, in 2019.
Country Singer and High Crime dueled through blistering opening splits of 21.76 and 44.27 before they folded, allowing Caul Paul to get to the front.
Had there been a halfway decent closer in the race, Call Paul may have gone down in this spot. He ground out a final furlong in 13.88.
Caul Paul did win the Saratoga Special (G2) last year and stretched to a mile in the Champagne, so there is a chance his connections could try to go farther again. However, sprints look to be more his game.
Forward Gal Stakes (G3)
Date Run: Feb 2, 2019
Winner: Feedback
On the Board: Bye Bye J, Champagne Anyone
Distance/Time: 7 Furlongs/1:23.51
Speed Figure: 98 TimeformUS
Grade: D
This race didn’t look important moving forward in the bigger picture, meaning it falls in line with other recent Kentucky Oaks preps.
This group started out very quick, getting the first quarter in :22.20 and the half in :45.34. After that, things went downhill in a hurry. The winner hit the three-quarters mark in 1:10.04, which equates to a third quarter in :24.70, before finishing off with a final furlong of :13.47.
A certain amount of fatigue is to be expected by those who are involved in the early pace, but the winner wasn't. She sat back, let the top two do all the dueling, then took over. Given the perfect nature of her trip, I would expect a much better finish.
To her credit, the Gulfstream Park track has looked tiring this meet. Also, Feedback dueled early with Fashion Faux Pas, yet held on for a win in what was just her second career start that came off the layoff
Still, it appears she has ground to make up before mentioned with the likes of division leaders Jaywalk and Bellafina.
Date Run: Feb 2, 2019
Winner: Power Gal
On the Board: Marathon Queen, Taylor’s Spirit
Distance/Time: 1 Mile/1:39.82
Speed Figure: 98 TimeformUS
Grade: F
If you thought the Forward Gal Stakes looked slow, and I believe it was, then this race ran a glacial pace.
Despite setting a snail-like early splits, hitting the first six furlongs in 1:14.32, Marathon Queen and Taylor’s Spirit simply couldn’t hold on in the end, relinquishing the lead to Power Gal in deep stretch.
If Power Gal had run quickly to get up in time, I would be more understanding, but a final furlong in 12.63 isn’t all that great when running conservatively early.
Again, she’s a stakes winner, but moving forward, I don’t see any in this field becoming major factors on the Oaks trail.