Pugh: Grading out last week's 2020 Kentucky Derby preps
A busy weekend of 2020 Kentucky Derby prep races saw three contenders punch their tickets to Churchill Downs, but it appears only one has a real shot at winning on the first Saturday in May. We'll start at the top.
San Felipe Stakes (G2)
Winner: Authentic
On the Board: Honor A. P., Storm the Court
Distance/Time: 8.5 furlongs, 1:43.56
Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 98
Grade: A
Analysis: The Sham Stakes (G3) winner Authentic showed the exact type of progression you would like to see from a lightly raced 3-year-old in his second start of the year. Last time, Authentic displayed all the talent in the world, but unfortunately, he also showed immaturity. When ducking through the stretch, the son of Into Mischief still managed to draw away from his opponents.
Saturday, newly equipped with ear plugs to block out crowd noise similar to how trainer Bob Baffert once handled 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, Authentic put on a much more professional show, shooting to the front and running his opponents into the ground.
The sampling of 1 1/16-mile races last weekend at Santa Anita Park was small. Another race at the distance, Sunday's Santa Ysabel (G3) for 3-year-old fillies, finished in 1:45.45 after similar opening splits to what Authentic set in the San Felipe. It was won by the well-regarded Donna Veloce, twice Grade 1-placed as a juvenile.
Second-place finisher Honor A. P. also ran a noteworthy race in the San Felipe in his first start since October. It would take another massive leap second off the bench to turn the tables on Authentic in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), especially since Authentic still has plenty of potential to mature being that he is a May foal. However, Honor A. P. is a nice fit pedigree-wise for the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby.
Tampa Bay Derby (G2)
Winner: King Guillermo
On the Board: Sole Volante, Texas Swing
Distance/Time: 8.5 furlongs, 1:42.63
Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 99
Grade: A
Analysis: Taking this prep at face value, it was simply impressive. Despite his long odds, King Guillermo had really only run one bad race, on debut, and was likely overlooked given he hadn't started since November and was switching to dirt.
However, a pedigree oriented for the main track took the colt to a whole new level, with his Beyer a point higher even than Authentic. From an outside post, King Guillermo rushed up to sit close to the pace before inhaling the leader and drawing off. His final 1/16 in 6.23 seconds is also encouraging.
The question now is whether this performance was a fluke, or rather an indication of King Guillermo's talent on dirt. Breeding says he could be this good. However, it's concerning to see how much he'll have to overcome by training up to the Kentucky Derby off just one start this season.
Gotham Stakes (G2)
Winner: Mischevious Alex
On the Board: Untitled, Attachment Rate
Distance/Time: 1 Mile, 1:38.80
Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 90
Grade: C
Analysis: Why this race still awards 50 Derby points to the winner is a mystery to me. A one-turn mile in March should have no bearing on the race that runs at 10 furlongs and around two turns. Yet here we are, offering a trip to Churchill Downs to a horse that may not want the distance.
That siad, with the addition of blinkers, Mischevious Alex has turned into a new horse, winning his last three starts by comfortable margins. The problem here is that he still can’t be considered a top Derby contender with that pedigree being asked to go around two turns.
The Gotham Stakes did little to make me believe Mischevious Alex has high routing potential. He didn't set too solid of a pace, yet he came home in a crawl, completing his final quarter mile in 26.30 seconds.
In the Wood Memorial (G2), or perhaps by going straight to Kentucky, Mischevious Alex will have to find another late gear to keep up with the competition.