Grading out the new year's 2020 Kentucky Derby preps

With the new year started, it's time to take a closer look at the 2020 Kentucky Derby preps, three of which have run within the last week on the way to Churchill Downs. Here are a few thoughts on the trio, starting with the best of them...

Mucho Macho Man Stakes

Winner: Chance It

On the Board: As Seen on Tv, Sole Volante

Distance/Time: 1 mile, 1:35.53

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 94

Grade: A

Analysis: In a week when, in my opinion, none of the top races for 3-year-olds disappointed, this one was the most telling of all.

The winner, Chance It tracked a hot pace set by fellow Florida-bred Smash Factor. For the majority of the race, the winner was down on the inside, receiving plenty of pressure as Inter Miami, As Seen on Tv and Ashaar raced around him. When Smash Factor began to come back to the field, it forced Chance It to make an early move. To avoid more traffic, he threaded his way up the rail. He then engaged As Seen on Tv in a prolonged stretch duel before finally prevailing by a nose. 

The final time was solid for this early in the season, and it reflected in the numbers. He was assigned a 94 by Beyer and a 112 by TimeformUS, about even numbers.

All in all, Chance It showed that he could race in traffic, make and sustain a move starting on the turn, and that he was willing to battle for the win. All qualities that are must-haves in top Kentucky Derby prospects, giving him every right to move on to the points-paying preps at Gulfstream Park. 

It's also notable how Chance It is a bit of a throwback having run so often as a 2-year-old, seeing his distances increase to 1 1/16 miles. He cut back here off the layoff and will range up in distance as the Derby trail continues.

Jerome Stakes (G3)

Winner: Independence Hall

On the Board: Prince of Pharoahs, Bourbon Bay

Distance/Time: 1 mile, 1:37.19

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 83

Grade: B

Analysis: It may not have been a blowout like his two prior performances, but Independence Hall accomplished what he needed to in the Jerome. 

In his last start, the Nashua Stakes (G3), he rolled to win by 12 1/4 lengths at this same trip, finishing in 1:34.66.  This time, Independence Hall still prevailed by four lengths in a more workmanlike effort.

The difference in both time and visual was likely caused by variance in the main track between the two dates. Since November, Aqueduct has slowed down, a norm for the winter meet.

Despite that, along with pre-race antics in the paddock and a stumble at the break, Independence Hall’s natural speed guided him up to his customary forward position early. From there, he made his typical move on the turn, separating himself from the rest of his opponents, while finishing up the final furlong in an encouraging :12.53 seconds, according to Trakus.

Sham Stakes (G3)

Winner: Authentic

On the Board: Azul Coast, Zimba Warrior

Distance/Time: 1 mile, 1:37.57

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 90

Grade: B-

Analysis: I believe Authentic has real talent, and that if not for his blatant shying from the grandstand multiple times down the stretch, he could have run about a second faster than the official final time. That's about all there was to knock in this effort.

However, pure talent only gets you so far on the Kentucky Derby trail. Professionalism is needed as well and often and often goes down as the difference when it comes to horses like Authentic.

It was obvious that he was simply in another class than his opponents on the day. None were fast enough to apply early pressure, which allowed him to get away in the stretch and win despite running greenly.

That should change as the waters deepen. In future preps, I hope to see a more focused individual and look forward to how he reacts when headed or stuck behind horses.