Grading Kentucky Derby 2018 contenders’ recent workouts

Heading into the Kentucky Derby, a horse’s last couple of works can be crucial. A great drill may signal a contender's readiness to fire a career best effort, while a bad work can just as easily set a pretender back when he's about to run the biggest race of his career.

With so much weighing on horses' morning form, here's my take on drills through Tuesday: 

 
The 'A' Team

Justify: This was more of Justify being Justify. He rated very well, cruised up on the outside of his workmate, then when given his cue, he extended that stride and kicked clear. If his professionalism and ease during the work wasn’t enough to impress, his gallop out was fantastic. Work Grade: A+

Noble Indy: I really liked this work. First off, it measured six furlongs, which you rarely see from the Todd Pletcher barn. He started on even terms with his workmate and steadily pulled to the front. Coming into the stretch, he was several in front of his workmate and was going easily. His rider did get after him a bit, but I think that was more to keep his mind on business after clearing his workmate so easily. Work Grade: A+Free Drop Billy: Powerful move. He recorded strong splits throughout the work, reeling off several furlongs in 11 and change, before finishing his final eighth in 12.2. The final quarter was 24 flat. Workmanlike gallop out. Work Grade: A



Audible: Audible is not a traditionally good workhorse, but he easily beat Patch while also showing he has no issue being down on the inside. Considering he’ll be in traffic given his running style, this was good to see. Final time was 1:01.4.  Work Grade: A

The 'B' Team

Good Magic: He could not have looked better, but it was only a maintenance move. I would not say the work was within himself, but he was definitely doing it all on his own. I very much look forward to his final work at Churchill Downs. Work Grade: B+ Bolt D’Oro: He went seven furlongs in a strong enough 1:24.2. However, it was the end of the breeze that worries me. He was under some urging to get his final quarter in more than 25 seconds. That isn’t impressive and suggests that he may be a bit tired head into the Derby. On the other hand, he was asked to rocket through the opening splits, and that could have left him lacking. Chances are he won’t be sprinting early in the Derby. Work Grade: B

Enticed: His high-climbing action is typical. Outworked Kentucky Oaks contender Take Charge Paula when given his cue. Impression here is this was a maintenance work. Work Grade: B
Promises Fulfilled: Another quick work in time, but a laborious ending. 11.60 and 23 flat first splits. Finished in 36.20, galloped out another 1/8 in 12.60. Jumped to left lead just before the wire. A sign of getting tired, in my opinion. Work Grade: B



Vino Rosso: Oddly constructed work, where Vino Rosso started off in front, only to be taken back behind workmate, Outplay. It was clear Vino Rosso was very into the bit and eager to go, but he rated for his rider despite that fact. He and Outplay ended up taking turns on the lead through the middle of the work, but in the end, finished on even terms in 49.65. Work Grade: B- Instilled Regard: He just made it into the Derby after the defections of Quip and Gronkowski. His work in 1:01 flat did little to make me think he’d have much of an impact, though. He did make up an impressive amount of ground on his workmate and did so under little encouragement. However, he wasn’t really reaching in his stride, and did not give the impression that he was really wanting to go farther. Work Grade: B-

Lone Sailor: Anything sub :58 is a fast time, but my issue here is that he was urged to come home in the end. If a horse is going to work fast, I’d rather see the entire work done within themselves, like Hard Spun’s :57 and change pre-Derby work. That was not the case here. Work Grade: C
Hofburg: Had an unofficial work in 1:01.60. I like the outside to inside move they had him make coming into the stretch. However, I was not a fan of him getting outworked in the end of the drill. He’ll need to do better over Churchill if he’s going to replicate that Florida Derby placing effort. Work Grade: C
Bravazo: From gate, put behind horses, took dirt, didn’t look comfortable (head up, off the bridle, was urged to stay closer in early stages). Split horses under heavy urging, and continued to lead through the work, again under heavy urging. Educational work, but overall not impressive in the least. Work Grade: D