Grading out last week's 2019 Kentucky Derby and Oaks preps
With the start of the new year, the road to the 2019 Kentucky Derby and Oaks heated up with four notable preps between Jan. 1 and Sunday.
With that in mind, let’s look at just how well they measure up, with a thank you to TimeformUS' Craig Milkowski for early insight on his speed figures.
Jerome Stakes
Date Run: Jan. 1
Winner: Mind Control
On the Board: Our Braintrust, Family Biz
Distance/Time: 1 mile in 1:38.98
Speed Figure: 107 TimeformUS
Grade: C+
Analysis: The final time will do nothing to impress anyone, and considering the stigma against 3-year-olds at Aqueduct, as opposed to counterparts down South at Gulfstream Park, I can't see many giving the Jerome a second look.
But I think that would be a mistake. This race was arguably the best prep of the week.
While the time was partially due to the stock that runs there, the track was playing slow, too. When compared with the only other two-turn race on the Jan. 1 Aqueduct card, Mind Control’s splits were far faster. He came home with his final furlong in a snappy 12.64 seconds, which was the best closing time of any Derby prep over this past week.
All in all, Mind Control impressed. That doesn't mean he wants all of 10 furlongs in the Kentucky Derby, but he has every right to continue on the trail.
Mucho Macho Man Stakes
Date Run: Saturday
Winner: Mihos
On the Board: Trophy Chaser, Garter and Tie
Distance/Time: 1 mile in 1:37.56
Speed Figure: 113 TimeformUS
Grade: C
Analysis: The main factor that led me to rank this one slightly below the Jerome was how they finished up. It's just tough to tell how good the top two are, and how far they really want to go.
The winner came home his final furlong in 13.78 seconds. Mihos was only able to get up in time, not because he was “surging,” but because Trophy Chaser ran out of steam in the streth.
With that said, the track was playing like quicksand all day, and both Mihos and Trophy Chaser ran considerably faster early splits than any other horses on the card.
Both of the 3-year-old sprint stakes over the Gulfstream Park main track saw quicker opening quarters. However, the opening half mile of the Mucho Macho Man Stakes was run 3/5 of a second faster than the opening halves in Limehouse and Glitter Woman Stakes. What is more the six-furlong split of the Mucho Macho Man, 1:10.23, was much faster than the 1.11.28 and 1:11.81 of the Limehouse and Glitter Woman Stakes final times.
What this tells me is the track was extremely slow and tiring. Given that, I think both winner and runner up can be excused for their less than enthusiastic finishes.
With that said, I still don’t hold out much hope for Trophy Chaser when it comes to routes. Mihos, on the other hand, at least looked to be finishing with interest despite racing close to the hot pace and traveling widest of all.
I am not ready to call the winner a top contender yet, but the potential is there.
Sham Stakes
Date Run: Saturday
Winner: Gunmetal Gray
On the Board: Sueno, Much Better
Distance/Time: 1 mile in 1:38.96
Speed Figure: 101 TimeformUS
Grade: F
Analysis: While it included a last-to-first rally by Gunmetal Gray, I'm not ready to call this race impressive, or even close to it.
More run slow and even, the Sham could have the track to blame, as it followed a trend in these preps of a slow-playing surface. While that excuses Much Better’s poor finish, considering he was never more than 1 1/2 lengths off the pace, it doesn't explain the plodding slow final splits that allowed Gunmetal Gray to win.
Gunmetal Gray, according to Trakus, ran opening splits of :24.48, 47.94 and 1:12.58. They were similar to the allowance race run one race earlier on the card at 8.5 furlongs.
The winner of that race, Poplular Kid, hit the mile marker in roughly 1:38, which, nearly a second better than Gunmetal Grey’s final time in the Sham.
The Sham winner was caught running his final furlong in :13.33 seconds, with his previous furlong only a slightly faster :13.05, also according to Trakus. This gives him him a final quarter of :26.38 seconds.
He got the setup and closed over a track few were able to. But Gunmetal Gray will need to do so faster down the road if he's to turn into a true Derby contender.
Santa Ynez Stakes
Date Run: Sunday
Winner: Bellafina
On the Board: Mother Mother, Tomlin
Distance/Time: 7 furlongs in 1:22.00
Speed Figure: 116 TimeformUS
Grade: A
Analysis: What happens when a true Grade 1-caliber horse steps onto the track? They make it look easy.
That is exactly what Bellafina did in the Santa Ynez. One day after the Sham Stakes left me underwhelmed, Bellafina stepped on the same track and dazzled.
The filly made finishing her final furlong in under 13 seconds look like a breeze, despite the fact she ran not only the fastest opening half on the card, but the quickest six furlongs as well.
To run as fast as she did early and still cruise home under wraps in :12.82 shows us that not only has she maintained her 2-year-old form, but she has continued her progression.
My only worry at this point would be her peaking too early, and any distance limitations. After all, she'll have to maintain it over two more furlongs in the 1 1/8-mile Kentucky Oaks.