Debating the Santa Anita Derby’s ‘Big 3’ contenders
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As much as we looked forward to Justify vs Magnum Moon in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, the reality of Justify vs. Bolt d’Oro — with Instilled Regard in the mix — presents an equally exciting alternative for Saturday’s Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby.
Obviously, the race does not pit unbeaten upstart stars, looking to break the 143-year-old “curse of Apollo,” but it faces a budding star on the 2018 Kentucky Derby trail against two tried and true, accomplished foes.
Let’s analyze the “Big 3” in Saturday’s race:
Justify
Record: 2: 2-0-0
Biggest Win: Allowance Optional Claiming
Best TimeformUS: 131
Strengths: Justify may lack the experience compared to the other top choices here, but he makes up for with an enormous amount of talent, and seemingly limitless potential. His natural speed is the best in the field, but he is far from a crazy, need-the-lead, speedball type.
As seen in his maiden race, he has more than enough speed to carry him to the lead if nobody else wants it. However, he’s also proven he is able to relax off the pace when asked. In his allowance victory just a few weeks ago, he demonstrated professionalism, rating under jockey Mike Smith until given the cue to pounce.
Weaknesses: Justify is still giving away a ton of seasoning to Bolt D’Oro and Instilled Regard. He was unraced as 2-year-old, which leads to a lack of foundation when compared to his rivals, who both raced four times as juveniles. Baffert is known, however, to build a strong foundation into his runners in the mornings. Justify shows works dating back to October.
Record: 6: 2-2-1
Biggest Win: LeComte Stakes (G3)
Best TimeformUS: 120
Strengths: Instilled Regard is as honest as they come. While his best effort thus far is a cut below the top two in this spot, major leaps forward aren’t uncommon for horses at this age. After shipping out for his last two starts, Instilled Regard is fresh and gets to run in his home state. Combine it all, and he could provide Justify and Bolt d’Oro a challenge.
Weaknesses: As noted above, his top figure doesn’t match the others. He’s plenty battle-tested, run in a Grade 1 before and well-traveled. Could the latter end up hurting him
The stretch duels and consecutive trips from California to the Fair Grounds in Louisiana may take their toll. Instilled Regard was a dull fourth last out in the Risen Star (G2) though only a neck behind the next-out Louisiana Derby winner Noble Indy.
The seven weeks between his races represents the longest layoff of this colt’s career.
Bolt D’Oro
Record: 5-4-0-1
Biggest Win: FrontRunner Stakes (GI)
Best TimeformUS: 125
Strengths: There’s plenty to like about this one. He is beautifully bred, and his pedigree insists longer races will suit him. To add, he’s fairly tactical, able to lay mid-pack or stay right up on the leaders. Basically, he can adapt to the pace and always seems to deliver a strong late kick.
He was incredibly precocious as a 2-year-old, and that form seems to have transferred well into this current season. In his seasonal debut the San Felipe Stakes (G2), he returned with an effort that nearly equaled his top performance as a juvenile in the FrontRunner Stakes (G1). That, despite his trainer saying Bolt d’Oro was only “80% cranked,” with the Santa Anita Derby his 100% race target.
Weakness: As good as he’s proven to be, Bolt D’Oro has displayed inconsistency leaving the gate. That ultimately cost him in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Combined with an outside post position, he was left several paths wide around both turns.
Bolt d’Oro gave away 78 feet of ground to his opponents, roughly equating to nearly 8 lengths worth of ground loss, yet he was only beaten a total of 5 ¼ lengths.
Ruis has been working with his charge on that issue, and it seemed to help in the San Felipe. However, one race is hardly a good sample size, meaning we won’t know if Bolt D’Oro will get away cleanly until Saturday.
Verdict
It will be close call in this spot, but I believe Justify will prove the best, with talent overcoming experience. In his two starts, he’s broken spot on and put himself in a position to win from the word go. I don’t see that changing here.
We haven’t see him bottom out yet, and while we might here, especially with a fully cranked Bolt D’Oro, I feel his best will better both Instilled Regard and Bolt D’Oro. His speed figures are superior, and assuming he handles the stretch in distance, he appears best of the “Big 3.”
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