Breeders’ Cup Classic sets up for 3-year-old winner

As exciting as last weekend’s races were, with photo finishes and huge upsets abound, they cemented one sobering fact. This year’s older male division is among the weakest we have seen in years.

Moving forward to the Breeders’ Cup Classic, one can only surmise that the top 3-year-olds heading into the Classic -- McKinzie and Catholic Boy -- have a significant chance to beat their elders.

What was so off-putting about Saturday's performances, you may ask?

Well, for starters, on the East Coast, Suburban Handicap and Whitney Stakes hero Diversify folded to finish a weakening fifth in the Grade 1, $750,000 Jockey Club Gold Cup. In his defense, he was sent through suicidal splits. However, his weakness has been exposed, and no jockey will be letting him get away with an easy lead in the Classic.

On the West Coast, the favorite in the Grade 1, $300,000 Awesome Again Stakes, Accelerate, did what he was supposed to do. He won the race as the heavy favorite and in doing so became the first horse in history to win the Santa Anita Handicap, Santa Anita Gold Cup, Pacific Classic, and Awesome Again in the same season. Despite this fact, the win was far from impressive. The final time was slow, and he was all out to defeat West Coast, who was obviously a short horse for his first start since March.

The most worthwhile performance within the older male division came from Mind Your Biscuits in Churchill Downs' Grade 3, $200,000 Lukas Classic. The son of Posse won by nearly five lengths and did so in an impressive final time. However, the field was on the weaker side. There also remains the question of how well he will handle 10 furlongs. The Lukas Classic was contested over nine furlongs and marked Mind Your Biscuits' first two-turn win.

On the 3-year-old front, even with the retirement of Triple Crown winner Justify, there remains depth. As noted earlier, the two strongest from that division are multiple grade one winners McKinzie and Catholic Boy.

Of the two, Catholic Boy appears more eligible to win the Classic. The colt has won at 10 furlongs twice this year, doing so over dirt and turf against Grade 1 competition. While his form was lackluster to start the year, it improved dramatically since June. He will be coming into the Classic with no prep since his Travers Stakes victory, but that type of layoff has produced the last three Classic winners, two of which used the Travers itself as a final prep.

McKinzie, while not proven at 10 furlongs, has given no reason to doubt his chances. He was a prime candidate for the Kentucky Derby before sidelined due to injury last March. In his return, the Pennsylvania Derby, he dusted the field going nine panels. While the final time did little to impress, the track was notably deep and tiring that day, as evidenced by other stakes run over the surface.

Given their form cycles, both colts should be primed and ready to deliver their best shots, which measure up favorably against this year’s older male division. I believe there is a strong possibility we could see a finish reminiscent of 2014, when the Classic's Top 4 placings were occupied by 3-year-olds.