Breeders' Cup Sprint: Projected field, odds and analysis

With a field full of top class speed, featuring seven Breeders’ Cup Challenge winners, six Grade 1 winners -- and ttopped by the defending champion -- the Breeders’ Cup Sprint promises to be fantastic race.

If the Sprint’s highly accomplished cast of probables isn’t exciting enough, it is worth noting that nearly every horse looking to enter the Sprint, save a couple, have shown a strong desire to be on or very close to the lead. With that in mind, this race could set up as a bettor’s dream, especially if they are willing to take a stand against the speed crazy favorites, in favor of the deep closers.

Bearing all this in mind, let’s meet our contenders with early odds from Horse Racing Nation:

American Pastime [20-1 - Tapizar – Baffert – 6: 3-2-0 - $180,100] A son of Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Tapizar, wasn’t even in the discussion for stakes race, let alone a Breeders’ Cup race, until late September, when he was second in the Grade 3 Gallant Bob Stakes at Parx. That day he was only beaten half a length to Grade 2 winner Coal Front. American Pastime ran pretty fast that day, but then again, so did a lot of horses. It’s hard to imagine a horse with so little experience making headway in such an accomplished bunch, especially with only one win and a fourth against allowance company over the track. 

Drefong [2-1 - Gio Ponti - Baffert - 8: 6-0-0 - $1,523,385] goes into the Breeders’ Cup Sprint looking to replicate the feat Midnight Lute pulled off for the first and only time, when winning back to back editions of the Sprint in ’07 and ’08. Coincidentally, Drefong is trained by Bob Baffert, the same man who trained Midnight Lute to his consecutive Sprint victories. Drefong has displayed scintillating early speed, but after a couple of works where he was asked to relax early before accelerating late. I believe we could see this son of Gio Ponti sit off the pace. If that is the case, it would enable him to stay out of what is likely to become a very hotly contested battle early on. 

El Deal’s [10-1 - Munnings - Navarro - 17: 9-3-1 - $575,025] game is to break like a rocket, shoot to the front, and run his opponents of their feet and into the ground. That is how he won the Alfred G. Vanderbilt (GI), and how he nearly pulled off another win in the Vosburgh Stakes (GI) two months later. If he can keep his form, despite traveling across the country, El Deal will be a very dangerous horse. However, his trainer, Jorge Navarro, said recently he won't run this horse in the Breeders' Cup. Final decision?

Imperial Hint [20-1 - Imperialism - Carvajal Jr. - 12: 8-1-0 - $560,155] is undefeated in four tries in 2017, but the big question is, who is he beating? While others have been facing top-notch competition, he has been running at no higher than the Grade 3 level. He will be jumping a big ways up in class here, and will have to keep pace with horses who are much faster than he’s ever faced. Every now and again we see a Cinderella story, like Work All Week, emerge. However, that is not the vibe I’m getting from this one. 

Mind Your Biscuits [4-1 - Posse - Summers - 17:6-6-2 - $2,224,166] was all the rage earlier this year. In fact, there were many calling him the one to beat for this race after big wins in the Dubai Golden Shaheen (GI) and the Belmont (GI) Sprint Championship. However, with a lack luster performance in the Forego Stakes (GI), he rapidly fell out of favor. That could be great new for those still backing him, because the latest from his camp is that he is training phenomenally. It also is a huge help that he is the only deep closer in a field of speedballs, which could lead to a pace collapse that he would be all too happy to take advantage of. 

Ransom the Moon [10-1 - Malibu Moon - D'Amato - 20: 5-6-1 - $$538,829] ran a huge race in Del Mar’s Bing Crosby Stakes (GI), which is exactly what you want to see when it is well-known that the Del Mar main track can prove to be quite difficult some to handle. The only problem with that big win is that it came at the hands of misfortune of the two heavy favorites, Drefong and Roy H. The former lost his rider early in the race, then went on to float Roy H six wide, opening the rail for Ransom the Moon to skim to victory. His next outing was a very ho-hum fourth, which doesn’t exactly inspire confidence that he is truly able to compete with this bunch. 

Roy H [3-1 - More Than Ready - P. Miller - 16: 5-4-1 - $534,765], the very unlucky Bing Crosby runner-up, returned with a vengeance in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship. He came home like a freight train that day, clocking his final furlong in :11.90 seconds, stopping the race clock in 1:08.68 for the six furlongs. That effort was given a Beyer Speed Figure of 110, the highest last out figure in the prospective field. He is fast and has proven dangerous over the Del Mar strip, giving him a very good chance to make it into the top three, if not the winner’s circle. 

Takaful [12-1- Bernardini - McLaughlin - 7:3-1-1 - $441,500] stunned El Deal when he stole the show in the Vosburgh Stakes, dealing the Grade 1-winning sprinter a length defeat. At distances under seven furlongs, Takaful is a perfect 3-for-3. However, like El Deal, he has yet to see the amount of pressure that will come his way in the Sprint. There is no doubt that he is a fast and talented colt, but I can’t see backing him for the win when he will be face with such a tough task in trying to out-duel so much early pace. 

Whitmore [8-1- Pleasantly Perfect - Moquett - 15:8-2-3 - $1,172,000] started his year off by registering four straight victories. Unfortunately, his winning streak came skidding to a halt when he ran a perplexing race when finishing third in the True North (G2). The lackluster performance was later explained when he exited the race with a minor hoof injury. After knocking the rust off in the Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash (G3), Whitmore returned to his winning ways when taking the Ogden Phoenix Stakes (G3). He isn’t as deep of a closer as Mind Your Biscuits, but he does prefer to sit back off the pace, which will be quite helpful should the pace fall apart. 

Summary: This is a strong, accomplished bunch of horses, but many have never faced the type of pace pressure they will encounter in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. With so many speedballs in the race, it is likely a pace meltdown will occur. If that were to happen it would enhance the chances of those who will sit back and make one big run.