Unique Bella better than Songbird? The Numbers Say So

Numbers aren’t everything, but they can be very telling. After romping in her first three starts of 2017, Unique Bella, a strapping grey daughter of Tapit, has drawn comparisons to last year’s Eclipse Champion 3-year-old filly Songbird.

While some are skeptical, many do believe the blue-blooded filly is a star in the making, and have even posed the question of is she just as good as Songbird was, at this point in that one’s career.

Obviously, Songbird was the more accomplished of the two at this point. She was the undefeated winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, winner of three Grade 1 races, and the reigning champion. However, the question does not refer to the resumes of the two fillies, but their talent and potential. It is in that department that the numbers say that Unique Bella is not just equal to Songbird, but faster.

When it comes to matters of the clock, Unique Bella has run faster than Songbird at every distance except one, and that was the Santa Ysabel, where Unique Bella stopped the clock in 1:43.11 which was only .09 off Songbird’s final time last year.

Now, we all know that comparing times is dicey enough, especially when comparing them from year to year. That is why we rely on numbers to help us access if the effort was really that good or not. To this point, Beyer, Brisnet, and Thoro-Graph all show Unique Bella to be the faster of the two, at this point in their careers.

In last year’s Las Virgenes, Songbird recorded a final time of 1:36 and 4/5 and received an 87 Beyer Speed Figure. Unique Bella recorded a final time of 1:35 and 3/5, and received a 98 Beyer Speed Figure. Brisnet recorded a similar gap in numbers, giving Songbird a 95, while dolling out an impressive 106 to Unique Bella.

In their next start, each filly ran in the Santa Ysabel, and while Unique Bella ran a tad slower on the clock, both Beyer and Brisnet ranked her performance above Songbird’s. For that race, Songbird received a 93 Beyer Speed Figure and a 98 Bris, while Unique Bella received a 97 Beyer Speed Figure and a 104 Bris.

Based on these figures, one can easily see a gap between the two fillies, however; how can one be sure these numbers tell the entire story? You can’t, as they rely mainly on track variant and the speed of the race, while not taking trip and other important factors into account. Thoro-Graph, however, does take those other circumstances into account. When making their numbers they will not only tell you the speed of that particular race, but will denote things like a troubled trip, or whether a horse may have not won while fully extended, to better help you understand the race that horse ran, and how it may have affected the final figure.

With Thoro-Graph, unlike Brisnet and Beyer Figures, the lower the figure equates to the faster race. In the Las Virgenes, Songbird was given a 3 ¾ by Thoro-Graph, while noting that Songbird may not have been fully extended in the effort. Unique Bella, in the same race, going the same distance, received a 1. She too received the designation that she may not have been fully extended.

In the Santa Ysabel, Thoro-Graph, like Brisnet and Beyer, awarded Unique Bella with the higher figure even though she ran a slightly slower time. Unique Bella received a 2 ¼ for her effort in the Santa Ysabel, with the notation that she had to take up during the race at one point. Songbird received a 5 ¼, while again receiving the notation that she may not have been fully extended.