Ax Man or Nero? Comparing San Vicente Stakes favorites
Since winning the Triple Crown in 2015 with American Pharoah, trainer Bob Baffert’s top horses have developed later, with Collected peaking as an older horse, Arrogate jumping to the stakes level after the Kentucky Derby and West Coast another example of patience paying off.
This year, however, Baffert looks to be back to his old ways already with three horses — McKinzie, Solomini and Mourinho — in the top 20 of the Road to the Derby points standings. The Hall of Famer could add another name to his already impressive roster of 3-year-old prospects Saturday in the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes.
Question is, which will prove better?
Ax Man has made just one start thus far but, to be fair, it was an extremely impressive one.
Back on Jan. 1, the colt broke alertly and continued to set a blistering early pace, going :21.73 and :44.64, before polishing off the six-furlong contest in a flashy 1:09.43, finishing more than nine lengths the best.
The win came under new conditions at Santa Anita Park, restricted to maidens purchased for less than $100,000 or homebreds. Notably, Ax Man was the only homebred in the field of 10.
By Misremembered, his pedigree on top is speed over distance through and through, while the bottom side of his pedigree is a mix of sprinter and middle-distance speed. Knowing this, it’s not surprising that Ax Man is a fast horse, but it will be interesting to see how far he will be able to stretch his speed. That shouldn’t be an issue Saturday going seven furlongs.
Nero has two starts to his credit, with neither the type of romp his stablemate made upon debut. Instead, Nero lost his first by a nose, before coming back a few months later to win by the same margin.
In both starts Nero displayed early speed before coming into the stretch under what was termed as “confident handling.” By that, they mean the most the rider did, until mid to late stretch, was hand ride.
The first time that happened Nero lost, and it could have been chalked up to a jockey getting too confident. They came into the stretch well clear, and looked to be home free, so it would be easy to assume that. However, the same approach was employed in his second race despite Nero running neck and neck with two other horses.
Victor Espinoza has said the colt doesn’t like the whip as, in the morning, he has a tendency to stop in the lane if it’s used. The jockey sat chilly on Nero despite the race coming down to a photo finish.
The horse still finished strongly in both races. If the light truly comes on, he could be any kind, given Coolmore connections went to $950,000 to purchase him.
Pedigree-wise, he’s by Pioneerof the Nile, sire of Triple Crown winner, while having a bit of a middle-distance pedigree on bottom.
Verdict
Both have been flattered by horses that won their next outings, though I’d still give the edge to Ax Man on that. He beat Lombo, who broke his maiden next out, then won last weekend’s Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis on the front end.
At this point, at this distance, I’m going with Ax Man as the better San Vicente contender. Both are equally fast early, and based on his two starts, I have no doubt that Nero will hang right with Ax Man. But I don’t see him going by.
Nero could improve to be the better horse, or at least prove to be the best going longer, but I remain skeptical about even that. Stopping when encouraged by the whip, while displaying traits of a horse that likes to wait on his competition, are not traits that I find encouraging moving forward. Ax Man may not be battle tested, but at least he is show he is willing to run on down the lane, even if it is all by himself.