What we learned from Santa Anita's opening day stakes races

Some thoughts from a packed afternoon of racing Wednesday at The Great Race Place…

2019 will be all about McKinzie

In one of the most loaded Malibu Stakes (G1) in recent history, McKinzie decimated the competition, posting a final time for seven furlongs (1:22.48) more than a full second faster than La Brea (G1) winner Spiced Perfection earlier in the card.

The son of Street Sense stumbled out of the gate, leaving him much farther behind than his stalking style typically puts him. Despite that, and a wide run around the turn, McKinzie still had plenty of kick left, turning on the afterburners mid-stretch to gain the lead and draw off impressively. 

This performance showed a new dynamic for McKinzie, who is usually part of the pace scenario in route races. He figured to sit at least a bit farther back in a sprint, but the turn of foot was devastating. It was quite a recovery from his Breeders’ Cup Classic try in which he finished 12th, never really a threat.

Moving forward, it wouldn’t be a surprise me to see McKinzie in the conversation for the Pegasus World Cup (G1) and a rematch with Accelerate going 1 1/8 miles at Gulfstream Park. Could he upset the champ?

Figuring out Dream Tree

Whereas Baffert figured out the right approach with McKinzie on Wednesday, the previously unbeaten Phoenix Thoroughbreds runner Dream Tree didn’t deliver the expected performance off a layoff like we’d seen earlier in the season when she came off the bench to win Saratoga’s Prioress Stakes (G2).

She got involved early, racing between horses on the lead, but then began to back up through the turn. Keep in mind, this start came after she missed the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint after coming out of a workout with a throat issue.

Hopefully the La Brea proves to be just an inexplicable clunker — as Baffert often says, it tends to happen with fillies — but given past issues, it could be a sign that she’s again headed to the sidelines.

What to make of Spiced Perfection?

The California-bred stepped out of state-bred competition to score in the La Brea, but coming to the wire she was fully extended to beat 33-1 shot Hot Autumn. There was no challenge, of course, from odds-on favorite Dream Tree, and the final time of 1:23.54 doesn’t pop out as impressive.

Spiced Perfection went the final eighth of a mile in 13.07 seconds. It’s special what the filly accomplished Wednesday, but looking ahead to 2019, I don’t expect her to dominate the division by any means.

No San Antonio standouts

The Top 3 finishers of the San Antonio Stakes (G2) in Gift Box, Battle of Midway and Dabster all ran admirably. However, none showed the type of dominance that could see moves forward to command the older male division in California the way Accelerate did in 2018.

There’s upside especially for Gift Box, who was making his first start since March and now in the care of new connections. However, Battle of Midway hasn’t quite proven to be the same horse that won last year’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, and Dabster, while consistent, probably prefers to go longer than the San Antonio’s 1 1/16 miles.

Amandine looks to control 2019 F&M Turf division

The Great Britain-bred Amandine won her stakes debut in the same manner she won her U.S. debut: smashingly. 

Covered up on the rail for most of the Lady of Shamrock Stakes, Amandine looked to be bottled up turning for home until a small seam opened up on the outside of post time favorite Miss Bad Behavior. Given her cue, Amadine surged ahead and opened up to win by an easy as she pleased 2 ¼ lengths. 

Now 2-for-2 domestically, she’s officially one to watch and could turn around to run as soon as Saturday in the American Oaks (G1). I hope connections play the long game, pointing her to the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf.