5 bold Kentucky Derby 2019 weekend predictions

There was no foreseeing an event of the likes of Omaha Beach’s scratch from the 2019 Kentucky Derby — especially in a year when all 20 contenders seemed to be thriving only days from the race.

That forced me to re-think how I’ll approach the race, with these five predictions for what’s ahead:

War of Will, Improbable fight to the finish 

With defection of Omaha Beach and quite possibly Haikal, who missed training Thursday morning due to a foot abscess, that could move War of Will out to the No. 2 post position. Every bit counts.

Making up one fewer path to avoid hugging the rail means War of Will might not have to catch quite a flyer from the gate. From his current position, the way the gate sits, he’ll have to find running room quickly.

Additionally, with one less speed threat in Omaha Beach, that also lessens the risk that too many contenders can cross over the Lecomte (G3) and Risen Star (G2) winner.

These developments also contribute to Improbable’s chances. In addition to flexibility at the break, they should get their preferred trips, with War of Will pressing and Improbable stalking, in first position to pounce.

There’s the off track to consider. War of Will trains in it and has won over wet dirt. Improbable has a dominant stakes win at Churchill on his resume, too.

With that in mind, I expect to see these two — at a nice price — settling the Derby, with the edge to Improbable.

Tacitus will miss the board

The bangwagon is growing for the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and Wood Memorial (G2) winner. Tacitus will be among my top choices for the Belmont Stakes if he goes, but I don’t see him being a threat in the Kentucky Derby.

He drew a favorable post and can take some bumping and jostling as evidenced well last time. But grinding running styles haven’t proven favorable in recent runnings, and he ran into hot paces in both his prep wins this season.

With so many others in this race figuring to sit closer early — and with a better turn of foot — Tacitus might miss the board completely.

Restless Rider upsets in the Oaks

All the money will pour in on Bellafina, who rightfully deserves favoritism after flashing her dominance all season long. However, she is far from a sure thing for several reasons.

Chief among them is a questionable performance over this track last year. Connections blamed a fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies on reproductive heat. But there’s still a question of whether she liked the track, and this time she could be asked to run over a wet surface for the first time.

If Bellafina fails to fire, Restless Rider stands to capitalize if she can overcome a wide draw. The gray daughter of Distorted Humor returned to the races with a bang-up second in the Ashland (G1), going nine furlongs in her first start in nearly five months.

That is no small feat, and she ran a 110 TimeformUS speed figure, better than anything from her Grade 1-winning 2-year-old campaign. Another step forward would put her right there with Belafina’s best number of the year, a 116.

Instagrand gets back to winning ways

Last season, Instagrand dazzled us with his raw speed as we wondered how far he’d stretch it. This year, Instagrand hasn’t quite looked quite the same when trained to go longer.

In the Gotham Stakes (G3), he rated behind horses before moving into a quick pace and flattening out. In his next start in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), he was allowed to dictate the pace but didn’t finish with zip going nine furlongs.

Instagrand connections have cut him back to the one-turn Pat Day Mile (G3) on the Derby undercard, and I expect to see the colt’s true ability. I’m talking an open-lengths win.

Sure, Instagram failed in the Gotham the last time he went a one-turn mile, but that day he rated coming off a layoff. This time, expect to see his speed back on display as the son of Into Mischief rounds back into form.

McKinzie over Instilled Regard in the Alysheba

Bob Baffert doesn’t like to draw the rail. But in this case, it could serve as an advantage for Alysheba (G2) contender McKinzie.

There appears to be relatively little speed in the field, which should allow the son of Street Sense to shoot straight to the lead.

Prime Attraction (post 3) and Silver Dust (post 10) are capable of setting the pace, but they’ll be under urging to do so. McKinzie shows a more natural cruising speed and could run them off their feet.

I expect Instilled Regard — in his return to dirt, and over a track where he ran fourth in last year’s Kentucky Derby — to rally for the place.