2014 Kentucky Derby: Trimming the Fluff
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Photo:
Keeneland/Coady Photography
It is a rare thing for me not to make my Derby picks known before the draw of the big race, but this year, outside of California Chrome, there were several very evenly matched horses. Now that the draw is out, I still have quite a few horses I like, but 13 out of the 20 have been completely eliminated.
All but two horses in the auxiliary gate, in my opinion, are tosses. Before the draw I liked Candy Boy's chances, and while Stevens is a great, great jockey, he'll need to be a miracle worker to get his mount to circle the field, after only two races this season, coming from post 18. Wicked Strong was one I really liked as well. I loved how well he bounced back in the Wood Memorial, when he finally left Florida. However, he is not as naturally talented as Big Brown, and I do not believe he will be good enough to even come close to the win, coming from the 20 post. Commanding Curve and Intense Holiday, are simply not good enough to compete with the best in the field, in my opinion. Intense Holiday has been working well, however, there is always one horse who is hyped based solely on his works and not prior credentials, and each year he finishes up the track. Last year it was Frac Daddy, this year, I'm betting it's Intense Holiday.
The two I do give a chance from the auxiliary gate are Ride on Curlin and Tapiture. Tapiture has exceptional positional speed which will help him greatly coming from the gate. Also being in post 15, he has a bit of a buffer zone to his inside. He may not have the best pedigree for the distance, but given his positional speed and the little bit of extra room to his inside, I can see him working out a much better trip that will aid him when the final drive begins. Ride on Curlin's post would normally deter me, but seeing as Calvin is King of Churchill Downs, I believe that whatever method he may choose, he will work out a good enough trip for this colt to be in the mix of things when the real running begins.
Now, switching gears, lets look at the first five horses. I believe you can toss the 1, 2, and 3. Uncle Sigh has been training well but will likely get buried into the first turn. Harry's Holiday has not impressed me in the least. Not in prior races, not in his works over the track, in absolutely nada. His post position does not help his chances of proving me wrong. Vicar's in Trouble is a very good little horse, though he might have distance limitations. I don't believe he'll get a fair shot to prove his doubters wrong, coming from the one post. He'll either have to gun it and get used far too much into the first turn or he will get buried. His options are bad and worst, pretty much.
Danza is a horse that will need to make his own race from post four. He needs to break well and hold a decent position in order to be competitive. His acceleration can be instantaneous and is exceptional. If he can break well, hold, and stay in the clear he will be rolling as everyone else is stopping. If he doesn't break well he will be squashed, period. If he doesn't break well he loses all chance at a clean trip, and likely the chance to use that great acceleration. California Chrome should work a good trip from his post, especially if he catches a flier anywhere close to the one he caught in the Robert B. Lewis.
Now for the post that fill out the middle of the field. Toss Wildcat Red. Toss Dance with Fate. Toss Chitu. Toss Vinceremos, General A Rod, and We Miss. Artie. Vinceremos is simply not in the same league as the top ones in this field and neither is Chitu. But a couple other things against Chitu in this spot are his questionable feet, and the fact he will likely get caught up in a hotly contested pace. General A Rod has not been particular impressive in his works, and hasn't shown the needed progression over the season. We Miss Artie and Wildcat Red have been letdowns in their works over the surface. You either get over the surface or you don't. They haven't been at all. Dance with Fate's connections never have seemed to doubt his ability to handle the dirt. However, they did express concern about his ability to take the kickback. He will be experiencing buckets of kickback from the 12 post.
Now, Samraat, Hoppertunity, and Medal Count look to work out very good trips from favorable posts. Samraat has made some nice appearances over Churchill Downs, and I love the fact he doesn't need the lead. His position in post 6, figures to give the perfect stalking trip, on the outside of California Chrome. I also loved that, in the Wood Memorial, when he finally switch to his correct lead, he found another gear to edge Social Inclusion. If he has worked out his lead issues, I don't think he will have any problems with the 10 furlongs. Hoppertunity, like Samraat has the perfect position to break, and then settle in the perfect stalking position. He is outside most of the speed, and inside most closers. He has been ultra impressive over the Churchill strip, so I am expecting a huge effort here. One that could land him in the top three, or even the winners circle.
Last but not least, there is always one synthetic horse who has a say in the final outcome in the Derby, and I believe it is Medal Count, in 2014. He has been rapidly improving and moving like a machine over the surface. Like Hoppertunity, he doesn't have much speed to his outside, so he has very little chance to get squashed. He can settle into a nice rhythm on the outside, sitting mid-pack, before coming with a mad rush down the stretch.
As of tonight, I have narrowed it down to seven horses. Danza, California Chrome, Samraat, Hoppertunity, Medal Count, Tapiture and Ride on Curlin. In the coming days, I will be back to give you all my final fantastic four.....stay tuned.
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