1 and 18? Bring em' On!
{{monthName}} {{day}}, {{year}} {{hour12}}:{{minuteTwoDigit}}{{dayPeriod}}
First off I would like to start off by saying that I got to see the Derby Draw LIVE yesterday! I know, not a big deal, but for a college student who is stuck with no TVG or HRTV, this was a humungous deal. I sat on the edge of my seat waiting for each and every one of my top selections names to be called. I did not have to wait for Soldat, but for Mucho Macho Man, Stay Thirsty, ArchArchArch and Uncle Mo, the time could not have passed any slower. You may be surprised, but overall I am pleased with the overall draw, even with my top two horses Mo and good old Archie, grabbing the 18 and 1 spots. Heck, I would even say go so far to say I think both horses drew fairly well.
You may think I’m a complete nutcase for thinking that, but before you judge let me tell you why each horse drew well, starting with Uncle Mo. Over the past few days Repole has said that he would like for Uncle Mo’s ideal trip to be nearly identical to his Breeders Cup Juvenile run. In that race he broke in a nice rhythm, and moved up to stalk Riveting Reason. In the 18 Uncle Mo will not have any trouble avoiding traffic or having to get to the outside. He is naturally faster than most of these out of the gate and will probably not have to be used much to get a garden spot four or so off the rail, three to five lengths off the lead.
I know some people, like myself like to research certain posts, and at first glance it is not good over the last decade. However, look a little deeper and you shall see horses breaking from gate 18 have not done so badly over the past decade. In 01’ there was not even 18 horses going to post. In 2002, two horses scratched bringing the total horses going to post down to 16, after 18 were originally set. In 2003, there was again only a field of 16 horses that went to post. So, right off the bat, three years without a single horse breaking from gate 18. In 04 the 18 was Tapit, who made a huge move around the turn to flatten and finish 9th. In 05’ Closing Argument took advantage of a pace meltdown to nab second place. 06’ Brother Derek finished fourth, however, if memory serves me correctly, the colt threw two shoes during that race. Any Given Saturday ran eighth the next year, but also was found to have a badly bruised hoof. Recapturetheglory ran fifth. In 09’ after the defection of I Want Revenge, Desert Party broke from the 18 hole, however he entered after shipping from Dubai, which is an auto toss every year. Then, last year, was Backtalk, a sprinter, who was listed, at odds of 50-1.
As you can see only seven times did a field of 18 or more go postward in the Kentucky Derby, and out of those seven, three landed in the top six horses. Every other horse that broke from that gate was an automatic toss by the public. What does all of this mean? It means that Uncle Mo, being a horse with some tactical speed and a legitimate shot, has a good shot of winning the Derby.
Now, for me to explain my logic on Archarcharch. Normally the one hole is a death sentence. No, horse since Ferdinand has won from that position, which was in 1986. That position is normally the prime spot for bumping, grinding and boxing, however, this year may be different. Gates 2-10 all have either horses that are likely going to go for the lead or sit close to it, or dead closers who will drop to the back of the field. With all that movement, Jon Court will have plenty of room to get Archarcharch into a decent enough spot, in the field.
So, after yesterday’s draw how do you like the hand dealt to you? Will you have to rethink all of your plays or do you love how your picks drew? Either way, nobody can deny that this will be on interesting Kentucky Derby.
Read More
This is the 17th and final installment of a weekly feature exclusive to Horse Racing Nation tracking the...
Forever Young earned a sparkling 140 Horse Racing Nation speed figure for his victory in Saturday's Breeders' Cup...
The Fasig-Tipton November Sale, held Monday at the Newtown Paddocks in Lexington, Ky., posted sales of more than...
Owen Almighty , the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby winner who most recently placed third in the Perryville...
A decade after Michelle Payne became the first woman win Australia's most famous race, Jamie Melham has etched herself...