The Dark Report – July 6, 2014

 

What a week of racing it has been! I’ve got a bunch of tidbits for all of you in this week’s DARK REPORT! We have an interview, a payoff, a brief analysis, a recovery, two new stakes races, a sprint, and a belief.

 

Let’s Go!

 

 

I know I posted this 500 times, but I can’t help to be excited about having the opportunity to interview one of the greatest U.S. born hockey players of all-time. Eddie Olczyk, current NBC hockey and horse racing broadcaster, and I had the opportunity to talk earlier this week.

 

 

 

 

At $153.00 for a mere $2 wager, yesterday Canterbury Park set a record for a win payout! Twelve-time maiden Burning Fuhry closed from far back on the Minnesota turf course and took over the lead from a stopping Crossed Boundary to score his first ever victory…at 75-1! The horse had never finished better than fourth in twelve starts!

 

The previous win payout record was set way back when the track was called Canterbury Downs (as I knew it growing up) where a horse called Money Trap (how appropriate) paid $152.40 to win. I contacted Canterbury’s Jeff Maday to see if any other records were broken. And they were not. Why?

 

Well first the story doesn’t end with just the win payout. In order, the horses finishes were…

 

1- Burning Fuhry @ 75-1

14- Tundra Leap @ 56-1

2- Fair Trade @ 14-1

5- Crossed Boundary @ 10-1

 

Since the trifecta and superfecta paid to ALL, technically the records for exotic payouts weren’t broken.

 

 

 

 

 

Some of you may know that I spend a lot of time in front of a spreadsheet analyzing years worth of my wagers to find where my strengths and weaknesses may hide. After taking a crack at some of the races at Belmont yesterday, I wanted to get an exact read on how bad my lifetime performance really is at any of the New York tracks. While the results may look bad, they certainly aren’t surprising.

 

 

As you can tell I should just really stay away from NYRA tracks. I understand how many people love Saratoga because of the rich history and the large wagering pools. For me, I think I’ll just watch and try winning money elsewhere. Ugh, those numbers are just a horrible sight!

 

However that got me to thinking about some of the other big racing days too. So I looked at my overall ROI on racing’s two biggest days, the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders’ Cup.

 

 

 

Those numbers are also in alignment with what I was thinking all along. I know I tend to do well historically in the Kentucky Derby, and I’ve lost half of my money in Breeders’ Cup wagers. (2011 Breeders’ Cup was in person and I didn’t use the ADW account because, well, I couldn’t get a cell signal! Rest assured, I didn’t do that well…) So, should I stay away from the Breeders’ Cup too? And if I follow the Kentucky Derby pattern, then I have a good shot at picking next year’s winner, right?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

On Tuesday, Claire Novak of Blood-Horse reported that Wise Dan is progressing well from emergency colic surgery and that he should be breezing soon. Novak reported that Wise Dan could return to defend his two-time title in the Fourstardave at Saratoga later this summer.

 

This is really good news for a horse that is a true champion. I have no doubt that this 7-year-old son of Wiseman’s Ferry will come back as strong as ever!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yesterday Belmont Park introduced two new stakes races (well renamed ones…) for our racing enjoyment.

 

In the inaugural running of the Belmont Derby (formerly the Jamaica Handicap), a $1,250,000 contested at 10 furlongs on Belmont’s inner turf course, 23-1 long shot Mr. Speaker drove home from dead last and held off a challenge by Irish-born Adelaide to win by a neck. Coming off a 5^th place finish in the new Pennine Ridge Stakes in late May at Belmont, Mr. Speaker was third off the layoff and used a foundation of good workouts and two previous turf victories to win for trainer Shug McGaughey. It was a flawless ride by jockey Jose Lezcano.

 

Then in the new 9 furlong Belmont Oaks (formerly the Garden City Stakes), 6-1 shot Minorette scored the minor upset winning by two lengths after running most of the race three-wide. Minorette was one of a handful European-based horses trying to take down the inagural Oaks title. Minorette had also been working out well and lost to second place finisher Sea Queen in their previous race against each other back on May 25.

 

 

There is a remarkable story about yesterday’s Arlington Sprint Stakes winner, Saint Leon, which I will attempt to track down later, but in the meantime this 9-year-old son of Stravinsky won his third straight sprint stakes title under the hands of Chicago-based jockey E.T. Baird. In typical Saint Leon AND E.T. Baird fashion, the horse took the lead and never looked back, winning by a length over hard charging Positive Side.

 

 

 

 

It’s not uncommon for Horse Racing Nation bloggers to occasionally stir up the pot and spark a debate. Our very own Andrew Champagne asked the question in his latest post…who is the better 3-year-old between California Chrome and yesterday’s G2 Los Alamitos Derby winner Shared Belief?

 

OK so I don’t see what the debate is all about. In my opinion California Chrome is clearly the better horse.

 

Sure, Shared Belief is undefeated in five starts, all in California, three of them graded stakes victories. However California Chrome faced much tougher competition in all three of the Triple Crown races. Chrome’s performances in the Santa Anita Derby, Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and yes even the Belmont (you saw his foot right?) I think tower over what Shared Belief has accomplished thus far.

 

Sure, Shared Belief is a very good horse, and has a bright future ahead of him, and it would be interesting to see him take on Chrome in a future race. But if you ask me right now who the better horse is, my vote is with California Chrome. In my mind, a Kentucky Derby winner trumps a Los Alamitos Derby winner. Just sayin’.

 

Finally, it was announced earlier this week that the Stronach Group, owners of Gulfstream Park, reached an agreement with Churchill Downs, Inc. to take over management of Calder Race Course.

 

It never made much sense to me why two competing Miami-area tracks would run meets at the exact same time; thinking about the number of horses to go around and the competition for the wagering dollar. I will assume that under this new management that the tracks will no longer run simultaneous meets.