Kentucky Derby 2015: Dark Horse Derby Preview

Here it is – my official Horse Racing Nation 2015 Kentucky Derby preview. This is shaping up to be one of the more competitive fields in recent years and about half of the field has a chance to win this. American Pharoah looks to be the best on paper, but let’s break down the field and see if we can find any additional value! Do you have derby fever yet?

Here we go with a different kind of breakdown.

First let’s look at the odds of the horses. In my previous analysis we learned that since the first Derby in 1875, odds of 10/1 or less win 80% of the races. Sure we all want to score a little cash, and that can be done through the exotics. However when picking a winner, the probability is in your favor by betting the horse at 10/1 or lower. Here’s how the odds stack up this year:

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So does that mean only the top three in this list have a chance to win? Of course not, again these are just the historical probabilities.

Before I go any further, YES each horse race is an independent event with new runners and considerations each and every year. Historical statistics don’t necessarily guarantee future performance. I get it, you get it. Furthermore, to some degree each and every horse has a chance to win this race by virtue of the fact that they are in the starting gate when the race begins. OK, back to the analysis…

As a WIN candidate, I’d go down the list to Frosted, if you were going by the odds.

Now let’s look at the post positions. Ah yes, sometimes the gate does matter! Generally we would like to think the best horse wins the race, but clearly over time a disadvantageous post position might hurt the chances of a potential winner. Here is a listing of this year’s horse and the historical post position numbers:

Sure the best horse should win the race, but posts 17-20 are a combined 4/140 (2.9%). Does that hurt the chances of Mr. Z, American Pharoah, Upstart, and Far Right? Would you toss American Pharoah just because he is in the 18 hole? Is that post good for his natural running style? And beyond just the outside posts, some posts haven’t won in quite a while! Post 11 hasn’t won since 1933, post 14 since 1961, post 12 since 1971, post 9 since 1972, and post 2 since 1978 (see Affirmed, Triple Crown winner). Stanford, Keen Ice, International Star, Bolo, and Carpe Diem will all need to buck some serious historical trends to win the race. Again I’m not saying it can’t be done, it’s just what history is telling us.

Going into the derby, I’d think the connections would want to give themselves the best chance to win. And since they made it to the derby, I’m thinking, “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” Still six horses will have different jockeys from their prep races going into the derby. Will that make a difference?

I don’t have the historical data to determine the impact of this statistic, and I know that sometimes a jockey has to choose between mounts (e.g. can’t be on two horses at the same time), but I don’t know how successful this is in the Derby. It’s just something to note. Additionally, War Story is removing the blinkers for the race. He has always worn blinkers, and wasn’t near the pace with the blinkers on. I wonder how much further back he will be with them off.

And speaking of jockeys, how successful are they when they team up with the trainer of the derby horse? The chart below shows winning percentages between 2014-2015. (For Mubtaahij, the jockey and trainer have worked together before, just not in North America over the last two years)

Now let’s dive into the horses’ lifetime record totals, on dirt, as a three year old, and in graded stakes. Perhaps these numbers could help our handicapping a bit.

I’ve highlighted some of the records that stood out most to me. As you can see, nine of the horses in the field have two wins or less, including four horses (Mr. Z, Keen Ice, Danzig Moon, and Tencendur) which have only won their maiden race! In looking at these records across all categories, I’m most impressed with American Pharoah, International Star, Dortmund, El Kabeir, Mubtaahij, Materiality, and Carpe Diem. However as Brian Brinkmeyer noted in his blog, previous graded stakes victories mean a lot in the Kentucky Derby. Those victories show that the horse has beaten some of the tougher competition. The horses’ graded stakes record is noted in the GSR column. Look, a handful of these horses have never won a graded stake! And it’s also no shock that the highlighted ones in the GSR column are the ones favorited to win the big race.

Another way to look at how well a horse has fared against their competition is to look at the earnings per start (EPS) calculation. Here I have calculated the EPS for the entire field and you can see that Carpe Diem, American Pharoah, Materiality, Dortmund, and Mubtaahij top the list. Three of those horses are also the three favorites to win the race.

Changing the subject, I wanted to see how this year’s field fared in their final prep races. Going into the Derby, most of us want to see our horse do well in the final race going in. Firing Line, American Pharoah, and Mubtaahij destroyed their respective fields. Dortmund, Carpe Diem, and Frosted ran very well too. But take a look at the bottom of the list and you’ll see some horses that were absolutely trounced in their last race, including Itsaknockout who lost by 21 lengths! I don’t think that’s darkening the form.

When comparing those finishes to their Beyer Speed Figures (BSF) I think there is a definite correlation. In fact, speaking of the Beyers, six (maybe 7 – Mubtaahij) horses set their highest lifetime Beyer in their final prep race! I’m surprised to see Materiality and Upstart in the list for one reason; their final times were the slowest of all the prep races. Yes, yes, I know the track was playing very slow that day… Anyway, not that BSF’s are the end all and be all, but there is a clear separation in this field.

I also thought it would be neat to see how all of the horses final prep times lined up against each other. Here it is:

Wow. Firing Line, American Pharoah, and Dortmund’s races were very impressive! I’m assuming a lot here, but add 12 seconds to each of those times and it’s right at 2:00! Interesting… Mr. Z’s final time (being destroyed by American Pharoah) is better than Frosted’s victory in the Wood Memorial! Whoa.

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With all that being said, here’s how I picture this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Like most years, there seems to be a lot of up front speed in this race. Though that doesn’t always happen, I think this year’s race will come through in that regard. I predict quite a few horses vying for that early lead including Ocho Ocho Ocho (out of necessity), Dortmund, Firing Line, and Stanford. Firing Line in my opinion will likely be the pace-setter…well him or Stanford. Dortmund has the advantageous 8-hole and he’s good enough were he can rate just slightly off the pace and let some of the speed from both sides pass him by early. I agree with Jerry Bailey’s assessment after the post draw where there will be a lot of horses wanting to sit in that stalking position behind the leaders. Because there’s only so much room, some of those horses will either get shuffled back, and/or need to try to save as much ground as possible. I definitely see Danzig Moon, El Kabeir, Bolo, Frosted, and Itsaknockout in the middle-ish rear-ish of the field, while International Star, Keen Ice, War Story, and Far Right will fall behind considerably early and will need a fast pace to pick up pieces at the end.

The horses should hold position around the first turn and on the backstretch until the far turn comes along and they start to make their move for home. From there I’m having trouble envisioning where the race will go. My guess is that the leaders without class will start to tucker out while Dortmund, American Pharaoh, and Upstart will have first look down the lane. That’s when Frosted, International Star, and even Danzig Moon will start to pick up the pieces along the way.

In the end, I believe that Mubtaahij has the best shot to win the race. The horse was so visually impressive in the UAE Derby and he’s already won twice at 1 3/16 miles going away. Based on what I’ve seen, and his pedigree, I think he has a good shot. I also really like Upstart in this race as well. A battle tested horse, Upstart has yet to finish off the board in seven career starts and seems to have recovered from his cold as he has fired two bullets in recent works. For third I have to go with Dortmund here. He’s undefeated, battle tested, and doesn’t have to burn too much energy coming from gate #8. To round out the field, I think International Star and Danzig Moon will be hanging around late and could pick up the pieces to round out some exotics.

And what about American Pharoah? Leave him off the ticket? Not on your life.

In total, I think the top contenders in this year's derby are Dortmund, Mubtaahij, Firing Line, International Star, Frosted, American Pharoah, Upstart, and Danzig Moon might pick up some pieces at the end.

I think a better play for this Derby with so many contenders would be the Oaks/Derby double!

And finally, for your viewing convenience, here are videos of all of the final prep races. Good luck!

Arkansas Derby (American Pharoah, Far Right, Mr. Z)

Bluegrass Stakes (Carpe Diem, Danzig Moon, Ocho Ocho Ocho)

Santa Anita Derby (Dortmund, Bolo)

Florida Derby (Materiality, Upstart, Itsaknockout)

Louisiana Derby (International Star, Stanford, War Story, Keen Ice)

Wood Memorial (Frosted, Tencendur, El Kabeir)

Sunland Derby (Firing Line)

UAE Derby (Mubtaahij)

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