Kentucky Derby 2015: Dark Derby Stats
We are two weeks from the 2015 Kentucky Derby, and since I’m often inspired by Jasen Mangrum and Derek Simon’s ability to effectively utilize spreadsheets to glean the most interesting facts about racing, speed rations, and calorie burn. So I figured I’d take a crack at it myself. I took the liberty to dive deep into some Kentucky Derby data to see if there are any historical trends which might help all of us on Derby day!
First, some of the easy stuff…
CURSE #1 - STORM CAT
Any descendant of Storm Cat has yet to win a Kentucky Derby. I’m not sure of the exact count, but I’m sure it’s a lot.
This year’s list includes:
- American Pharoah (Dam Side)
- Carpe Diem (Sire Side)
- Conquest Typhoon (Sire Side)
- Dortmund (Dam Side)
- El Kabeir (Sire Side)
- Firing Line (Sire Side)
- Mr. Z (Dam Side)
- Stanford (Dam Side)
- Tencendur (Dam Side)
I also think descendants of Tapit seem to struggle with winning the Derby as well. In fact, I think that has failed to happen all together!
This year’s list includes:
- Frosted
DOSAGE INDEX
Finally, I know a lot of you aren’t into the dosage index (DI), but let’s look at the facts. In the last 75 years…
- 20 horses (26.7%) have won the derby with a DI greater than 3.00.
- 17 horses (22.7%) have won the derby with a DI of 3.30 or better.
- 8 horses (10.7%) have won the derby with a DI of 4.00 or better (last being Mine The Bird in 2009).
Say what you want, but the odds are definitely stacked against those horses with higher DI numbers.
This year's list includes:
- American Pharoah (4.33)
- International Star (4.09)
- El Kabeir (3.57)
- Frammento (3.50)
- Danzig Moon (3.44)
- One Lucky Dane (3.40)
- Bold Conquest (3.36)
- Stanford (3.36)
- Ami's Flatter (3.33)
- Madefromlucky (3.21)
The winner with the highest DI was Strike The Gold in 1991 with a 9.00!
To make your life easier, I have compiled a list of this year’s contenders. Here are their DI ratings:
Now, I’m not saying that these horses can’t finish second, but in terms of winning the race, the numbers speak for themselves.
CURSE #2 - APOLLO
AND…how can we possibly forget about the curse of Apollo? Yes, since 1882, NOT ONE SINGLE HORSE has won the Kentucky Derby when they did not run as a two year old. Bodemeister almost did it a couple of years ago, but it’s been 132 years since it’s happened last.
This year’s list includes:
YOU SEXY THING
Since 1875, only nine geldings (9.4%) and no ridglings (0.0%) have ever won the Kentucky Derby.
This year’s list includes:
- Far Right (r)
- Upstart (r)
- War Story (g)
And for what it’s worth, three fillies (2.1%) have ever won it.
CURSE #3 - NAWLINS
Before I get into my graphs, I also need to let you know that since 1970, no horse has won the Kentucky Derby when the Louisiana Derby has been their final prep, regardless of finish. In Fair Grounds' defense though, there were two winners which have won the Kentucky Derby; Black Gold (1924) and Grindstone (1996). Only in 2009 did they move the Derby to a time of year when it became a final prep race. Yet still, only two winners of this race have won the Derby.
This year’s list includes:
- Stanford
- War Story
- Keen Ice
And speaking of final preps, no horse since 1970 finished worse than 4th in their prep race and still won the Derby. Only 4 horses since 1970 (8.9%) have finished 4th and still gone on to win the Derby; Sea Hero (1993), Thunder Gulch (1995), Giacomo (2005), and Mine That Bird (2009).
This year’s list includes:
- Keen Ice
PASSING THE TEST
Therefore the only horses left that pass all of the tests are:
- Bolo
- Maftool
And some of them aren't even running! Sounds like a large exacta box to me!
RANDOM DARK STATS
Here are some other tidbits:
- 80% of derby winners since 1970 have finished 1st or 2nd in final prep
- Since 1875, the favorite has finished off the board 39 times (27%)
- Since 1980, the favorite has finished off the board 21 times (60%)
- Average field size: 1875-1980 = 11.48
- Average field size: Since 1980 = 17.91
- Since 1875: number of winners whose name began with "Orb": 1. That was Orb in 2013
- Since 1875, the average winner's odds all-time is 7.88-1
- If 0.5 is half way between the rail and outside post, and 1.0 is the most outside post... the average winner is 0.504 all time
THE GRAPHS
So I’ve spent the last few weeks analyzing years’ worth of Derby statistics to bring you these fine graphs. Use them at your own peril!
AVERAGE FIELD SIZE BY DECADE
AVERAGE WINNER’S ODDS, ALL TIME
AVERAGE WINNER’S ODDS BY DECADE
NUMBER OF FAVORITES FINISHING OFF THE BOARD BY DECADE
LONGEST SHOTS TO WIN THE DERBY, ALL TIME
SHORTEST SHOTS TO WIN THE DERBY, ALL TIME
WINS BY POST POSITION, ALL TIME
AVERAGE $2 WIN PAYOUT BY POST, ALL TIME
AVERAGE $2 WIN PAYOUT BY POST SINCE 1980
AVERAGE $2 WIN PAYOUT BY TRACK CONDITION, ALL TIME
FINALLY, BLENDING THE TRENDS
So what can we take away from this, other than that I’m not as good as Derek Simon or Jasen Mangrum?
- Field sizes have certainly increased over the years and that has likely led to the higher payouts in recent times.
- However the average odds of the winner looks cyclical and perhaps is heading toward a period of low prices.
- The number of favorites finishing off the board also looks very cyclical and is supporting the recent trend of lower derby prices.
- Winners at 10/1 or less win 80% of the Derby races.
- Only 14 Derby winners (10%) have won at odds of 20/1 or higher.
- Post 17 has yet to yield a winner. 18 and 19 have only done it once each.
- Sloppy tracks yield the higher win payouts.
- Dosage Index still might mean something.
Well, there you have it. Hopefully we have all learned a little something more about the Kentucky Derby and perhaps it will help us cash at the windows too!
Coming Soon: The annual DARK HORSE DERBY PREVIEW!