Kentucky Derby 2013: He Said Orb

As Kentucky Derby 139 draws near everyone is asking themselves who is the top candidate, who has the best chance to get to the wire first. Many look at this year’s class and wonder who has the best pedigree, speed, and stamina. 

 

Itsmyluckyday, the choice of Dead Heat Debates’ Laura Pugh, may have fast Beyer numbers, but how much does that really matter? Horses running in the derby need more than just Beyer numbers, they need both speed and stamina to get the full 10 furlongs.  That’s why my choice for the derby has been the same all along, and that is Orb. I’ll compare the two horses and prove that Orb will outrun Itsmyluckyday. 

 

First off, let’s look at the pedigrees.  It’s obvious that Orb has the pedigree more consistent with a runner who is going to have some stamina. The broodmare sire for Itsmyluckyday, Doneralie Court, was more of a seven furlong specialist. Sure, we know about the accomplishments of Lawyer Ron, but on the dam side, I just don’t see the ability to get the distance.  With Orb it’s a whole different story. Now while Malibu Moon himself didn’t accomplish much, he still has A.P. Indy and Mr. Prospector in his bloodline.  His broodmare sire, Unbridled, needs no introduction as we all know he won both the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders’ Cup Classic. That’s quite a resume.

 

Now let’s look at the current accomplishments of both horses. Itsmyluckyday does have five wins, of which four of them were against much inferior competition.  His main win, in the Holy Bull, was against derby hopefuls Shanghai Bobby and Frac Daddy. His most recent defeat was against a rising star and popular derby pick, my choice, Orb.  Now Orb has been completely on fire since his maiden victory late last year. In fact, he hasn’t lost at all.  Four wins in a row, each time taking a step up in class. In his most recent race, the Florida Derby, he simply had to stalk the moderately slower pace, swing four wide on the turn, and bring it home. Orb has won from the rail and from the middle posts. I think he is in a perfect spot to take down the derby. 

 

 

 

Finally, Orb has been posting some fantastic workouts since the Florida Derby.  He has trained twice at 4 furlongs and once at 5 furlongs. One of his 4 furlong works was in a quick 47.4 in his final tune-up for the big race.