2014 Kentucky Derby: Dark Horse’s Preview

It’s Kentucky Derby season! Unlike last year where Orb was the obvious choice, this year’s field is very wide open! This is likely the race where you can find some value and score big…unless California Chrome wins… let’s take a closer look at the 2014 2014 Kentucky Derby field!

I would not normally start with the pace scenario, however it appears that this year’s derby is going to be extremely fast up front. Twin Spires’ Derek Simon is even predicting a 46 and change half mile!

 

 

 

 

 

With this kind of speed, it might be a perfect time to pick a closer. Horses that I expect to be contending for the early lead or very close to the pace include Vicar’s In Trouble, Uncle Sigh, California Chrome, Samraat, Wildcat Red, Chitu, and Pablo Del Monte if he draws in. Whoa! Now that’s a lot of speed! Now of course it’s the Kentucky Derby and absolutely anything can happen. Now some of the deeper closers to whom I give a little more weight are Dance With Fate, Medal Count, Intense Holiday, and Wicked Strong. There isn’t a lot of dispute around closers closing into the fast pace.

With that being said, let’s take a look at the field!

This son of Street Boss surprised the world when he won the Arkansas Derby at 41-1!

 

In only his fourth career race he snuck through on the rail and pulled away from the field winning by 4 ½ lengths. The question is whether or not he can improve off of that monster performance or will he bounce off of that effort? Well the Arkansas Derby was a field of 8, and the big race is a field of up to 20. The derby is his third race off the layoff which is a popular handicapping angle. I expect him to settle in between the leaders and mid-pack once the gates open, then we will see if he has the kick in the end.

Here is your Kentucky Derby favorite, and deservedly so. This horse has done nothing but win in his last four starts, and those wins have been quite impressive. So much so, that in his last four races no one has been within five lengths! His final time in the Santa Anita Derby of 1:47 2/5 is the fastest of all of the derby prep times.

 

 

So do you downgrade Chrome’s chances because Santa Anita is such a speed-favoring track? Here’s some food for thought. I’ll Have Another, the 2012 Kentucky Derby Winner, won the Santa Anita Derby in 1:47 4/5 in a stalking fashion. Chrome has the highest Beyer Speed Figures in the field and has been working well at Los Alamitos. What’s there not to like here? His pedigree checks out for the distance and he has excellent form on dirt.

I’m really not sure what to do with this horse. He has yet to finish out of the money, finished third in the Florida Derby, and has been working well since then. He has a lot of other things working in his favor. The Kentucky Derby is his third off of the layoff, his pedigree checks out OK for the distance, and jockey Joel Rosario (last year’s derby winner) and trainer Mike Maker are hitting at a powerful 55% at Churchill Downs and 30% overall! He weakened against a much slower pace in the Florida Derby to earn the show, and the quicker pace expected in the big race should work to his advantage. He will need to rate a little further behind the speed which has not been his normal running style.

Winner of the Bluegrass at Keeneland, Dance With Fate was very impressive in his derby prep, making a bold, sweeping move to the victory. It’s the kind of move that we would like to see in the Kentucky Derby.

 

This three-year-old son of Two Step Salsa (by Petionville) has been improving with each and every start. Trainer Peter Eurton isn’t sure if dirt is the best surface for this colt, but a second place finish in the Front Runner Stakes last year at Santa Anita tells me otherwise. Typically I would want better dirt form coming into the derby, but you cannot ignore this horse’s improvement. The big question will be how he takes to the dirt at Churchill. If he does, he has a great chance to win.

This horse is my top pick in the derby. The pedigree screams of being able to easily handle the ten furlongs (Dynaformer – Brisquette by Unbridled’s Song). Though Medal Count broke his maiden on the dirt at Ellis Park (off the turf), his two other races on dirt were forgettable. Still, I like to see three-year-olds make improvements with each and every race, and Medal Count has done so. He performed very well in his last two races, both graded stakes at Keeneland (a victory in the Transylvania off the turf and a second place finish to Dance With Fate in the Bluegrass). In the Bluegrass, he had to sweep by 6-wide and finished the race well. Again, the pedigree suggests he can get the extra furlong. Trainer Dale Romans is very high on his derby chances this year and Medal Count has the favorable running style and post position to make it happen.

Generally a head-case in the gate, Wicked Strong actually couldn’t have asked for a better post. In post 20 (maybe 19 since Hoppertunity scratched) he will be one of the last to go into the gate, which will be extremely advantageous to him. Now, the extremely wide post is a disadvantage as he will need to make up a lot of ground early on, but I expect him to be well off the pace and perhaps able to save a little ground if possible. His closing move in the Wood Memorial was so impressive that he immediately jumped to the top of many folks’ lists. He has the running style and pedigree to take down the derby. He just needs to get over the wide post and nerves.

 

I’m also concerned about the bounce factor with Wicked Strong as his 104 Beyer Speed Figure was well above and beyond anything he had done before. This horse will also probably be the sympathetic pick for many as the Boston-based ownership group will donate 5% of the race earnings to the victims of the Boston Marathon bombing last year.  

#6 - Samraat – Five wins from six lifetime starts, distance might be a slight issue. Only loss was to Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial.

#13 - Chitu – A wildcard here, three wins from four starts isn’t bad, but Chitu hasn’t faced the toughest competition either. Defeated Candy Boy at Santa Anita earlier this year.

#15 - Tapiture – In the money six of seven starts, missed badly in the Arkansas Derby. Do we draw a line through that race, or will the distance be an issue. Trainer Steve Asmussen isn’t sure about the ability to get ten furlongs either. Still, has been relatively consistent and has overall good form on dirt.

#16 - Intense Holiday – This beaten favorite of the Louisiana Derby finished 3 ½ lengths behind a slow 1:50 3/5 finish by Vicar’s In Trouble. Pedigree is so-so and overall the horse hasn’t shown much. Still can you discount a Pletcher/Velazquez combination?

#18 – Candy Boy – A popular pick for many, Candy Boy finished third behind California Chrome and Hoppertunity in the Santa Anita Derby back in early April. He was a bit too close to the pace in that race, and if he sits back a little further, as is his normal running style, he could contend here. His pedigree doesn’t jump out to me.

#19 – Ride On Curlin – Any horse ridden by Calvin Borel cannot be discarded. Ride On Curlin has only won two races, both of which were sprints. He lost to Danza in the Arkansas Derby, however he was bumped at the start and that threw him off. He did finish very well however and closed into a moderate pace. This horse is no stranger to graded stakes competition.

#1 – Vicar’s In Trouble – has the dreaded rail and will try to contend for the early lead.

#2 – Harry’s Holiday – Scott will eat this blog if this horse wins.

#3 – Uncle Sigh – The addition of blinkers will likely cause him to vie for the early lead. Not a formula for success.

#7 – We Miss Artie – An abysmal Fountain Of Youth and a slow Spiral (1:52 1/5) is enough for me to toss him out. Will I pay for that? Pedigree is OK, but…

#9 – Vinceremos – Horrible run in the Bluegrass was enough for me to toss this horse out. Pedigree doesn’t suggest victory.

#10 – Wildcat Red – Will also vie for early lead. Has performed surprisingly well considering the pedigree. Ten furlongs will be too far.

#17 – Commanding Curve – Pedigree is OK, but only victory was the maiden breaker. Deep closer could get up for 3^rd or 4^th if lucky.

#21 – Pablo Del Monte – Likely speed-burner coming from way outside if he draws in.

Descendants of Storm Cat have never won the derby. This year, this includes:

Vicars In Trouble

Harry's Holiday

Samraat

Wildcat Red

Chitu

Intense Holiday

Commanding Curve

Ride On Curlin

I’m totally not as comfortable this year as I was with Orb last year, but my top pick for this Kentucky Derby is Medal Count. I will box him in exactas, trifectas, and superfectas with Wicked Strong, Dance With Fate, Ride On Curlin, and maybe General A Rod.

This year’s race is fairly wide-open in my opinion and nothing would really shock me.

Who do you like in this year’s Kentucky Derby?