Trifecta Betting Strategies

The purpose of this blog has always been to share ideas that may help others cash more tickets (trifectas and superfectas in this instance), not to pat myself on the back after winning. In fact, one of the teaching examples will show a losing bet when I felt the thought process was correct, though the end result was not.

When playing trifectas many bettors focus on narrowing down win contenders, and work their way down to the 2^nd and 3^rd positions. On the other hand, I like to work my way from the bottom up by indentifying horses that may not be win factors, but have a decent shot at running 2^nd or 3^rd. This gives the option to spread on the top line in tris and supers, which in turn creates bigger payoffs when longshots win. This is more commonly known as the reverse pyramid method.

Though horses like this can be found running every day, at every track and at every level, I find myself employing this method most in maiden and non-winners of 2 lifetime races. Here are a few examples over the last few days.

One of my favorite tracks to play in the winter is Hawthorne, so as I was getting crushed on Wednesday in a multi-track handicapping contest, I was also playing some races from the South Chicago oval. The 6^th race was a $5,000 claimer for non-winners of 2 races lifetime. #4 Contemporary Art looked like a good candidate to hit the board, but not win. His lifetime record of 23-1-4-4 hints that he does not have that killer instinct to win, but one that likes to run with pack. Also, his sprint race 2 back showed he can handle track and retaining top rider Eddie Perez despite clipping heels and finishing poorly in his last.

This race also looked like some chaos could occur as far as who might end up in the winner’s circle, since #5 Kinzig was even money on the morning line while sporting a lifetime record of 13-1-5-0. I decided to wheel #4 in 2^nd and 3^rd in the trifecta. The tickets were structured like this 1,2,3,5,9/4/1,2,3,5,6,7,9 and 1,2,3,5,9/1,2,3,5,6,7,9/4   

Fortunately, Contemporary Art loomed boldly on the turn and flattened out like usual. Unfortunately it was for 5^th place. By looking at the chart some big prices landed in the top 2 spots of the trifecta, the suspect favorite ran poorly and the trifecta returned a handsome sum. A good thought process that just did not materialize.

Fast forward to Thursday…I was looking for someone to play in a head-to-head tournament over the first 6 races at Betfair Hollywood Park on DerbyWars, but could not find any takers before first post, so it was back to regular betting. The 4^th from BHP was a $20,000 maiden claimer at 1 1/16 miles where #4 Tiz Futurity had very competitive speed figures, but a dismal lifetime record of 17-0-2-1. Rather than longshots possibly winning, this race looked to go through only the #7 Midnight Cassanova and #8 Chocolatier. The only chance for chaos would be in the 2^nd or 3^rd row. Here were my tickets: 7,8/4/1,2,7,8 7,8/1,2,7,8/4 and then I wanted to press the combinations with the 7 & 8, so 7,8/4,7,8/4,7,8 and a straight trifecta 7-8-4.

Though the result was chalky, hitting the trifecta multiple times paid for Wednesday’s losses and then some. Plus, I gave myself a chance for a nice payout had the #7 or 8 ran out of the money. The odds on my key horses were not too big in both of these examples, but one can clearly see the value created just by asking logical horses to hit the board.

*PPs provided by Brisnet and result charts by Equibase