Kentucky Derby Day All-Stakes Analysis
Race 5-Gd. 3 Pat Day Mile
#5 Lord Nelson fell a half length short of keeping his record around one turn unblemished when encountering a horrible trip last out in the Bay Shore Stakes at Aqueduct. He should get plenty of pace to run at between Gimme Da Lute, Hillbilly Royalty and #6 Competitive Edge battling for the early lead. The latter is undefeated in 3 starts and only has to answer the question of going an extra furlong. Being draw outside the other front runners is a major positive. #3 The Truth Or Else should enjoy the cutback to one turn, and will be well off the pace while removing blinkers. He is multiple graded stakes placed at the 1-turn, 1-mile distance.
Selections 5-6-3-2
Race 6-Gd. 2 American Turf
It’s an undercard stakes race on huge day, throw in the fact that we’re at Churchill Downs & know we’re talking Ken and Sarah Ramsey’s language! In a wide-open race loaded with early speed, #3 Granny’s Kitten should finish fastest of all to the liking of Ken Ramsey’s wide grin. #8 Conquest Typhoon gets back to his favorite surface, while cutting back a 16th of a mile for the red-hot Mark Casse barn. He has been pointed for this spot following his runner-up finish in the Gd. 3 Spiral Stakes. #11 Divisidero has done nothing wrong, while catching slow paces, in both lifetime starts. The added pace should really set up his late kick at a big price.
Selection 3-8-11-2
Race 7-Gd. 1 Humana Distaff
#3 Dame Dorothy’s best race was at today’s distance when seen winning the Sunshine Millions Distaff. Look for her to lay second or third early and get first jump on the other contenders. The defending Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint champ, #8 Judy the Beauty, is beautifully drawn outside and looks to avenge her defeat in this race last year. Jockey Mike Smith is undefeated on her in 2 starts, and it would not be a surprise if he completed the hat trick. #1 Sweet Reason has the disadvantageous rail draw, but has been working very well for this. She is just as good as the top 2, but Irad Ortiz Jr. must channel his inner Calvin Borel and work out a good rail trip.
Selection 3-8-1-7
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Race 8-Gd. 2 Churchill Distaff Mile
The top 3 finishers from Gulfstream Park’s Honey Fox Stakes, Lady Lara, Sandiva and Coffee Clique look very tough in this spot. Sandiva looked like she moved too early when Lady Lara ran her down in the final strides. Coffee Clique had the look of a horse that was prepping for this spot today. I’ll go with #8 Sandiva to turn the tables. #5 Coffee Clique should improve off her last. #4 Lady Lara did nothing wrong in her last, and wouldn’t be shocked to see a repeat.
Selections 8-5-4-11
Race 9-Gd. 1 Churchill Downs Stakes
Breeders’ Cup Classic champion #2 Bayern will have to overcome an inside post and many other front runners to make his 2015 debut a winning one. Arguably, his best effort was when he drew the rail in the 7-furlong Woody Stephens on last year Belmont undercard. Though he’s been training great for today’s race, I’ll try to beat him at a short price. #5 Pants on Fire is undefeated at the distance and should get a perfect stalking trip. #1 C. Zee got nabbed on the wire last time out against Kobe’s Back, and should be closing best of all to get a piece at a big price.
Selections 5-2-1-4
Race 10-Gd. 1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic
Chocolate Ride looks like the lone speed, but appears that the distance and quality of the field will be too much for him. #1 Optimizer looks to lay second early, and get the first jump on the closers. He was 2nd to Wise Dan in the race in 2013, and has a handful of stamina-building works going into this off a 7-month layoff. #8 Stephanie’s Kitten is undefeated at this distance, but is trying males for the first time in 20 career starts. The classy mare has a huge chance for owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey. #9 Seek Again ran lights out in this last year when falling a head short to Wise Dan off a 5-month layoff. A repeat of that will easily land him in the winner’s circle, but his last two races of 2014 leaves us wondering if he can recapture that form for trainer Bill Mott.
Selections 1-8-9-12
Race 11-Gd. 1 Kentucky Derby
I’m still of the opinion that American Pharoah needs the lead to beat horses of this quality, and with Ocho Ocho Ocho, Materiality,Firing Line and Mr. Z all drawn to his inside, I expect him to be sitting in 3rd place at best through the first 6 furlongs of the race. There is no doubt both wins this year were impressive, so he will be on my tickets, just not the focal point. According to the speed figures I use, there are runners faster than the favorite. All of them possess tactical running styles should have no trouble handling the distance. #8 Dortmund is undefeated in 6 starts, battle tested and getting faster as the races get longer. The biggest signal was after his maiden win at Santa Anita, trainer Bob Baffert sent Dortmund to race under the lights at Churchill Downs to see if he could handle the surroundings. Baffert knew after the November maiden breaker that he had a serious Derby contender, and everything has gone to plan up to now. #15 Frosted greatly improved in the Wood Memorial after a throat procedure to help with a slight breathing problem. In fact, he enters the Derby with the highest figure last out when stoutly closing into a slow pace. #2 Carpe Diem has been impressive in 2 starts this year, while setting perfect stalking trips. He should get the same trip today, though the inside draw isn’t the most advantageous. #19 Upstart has danced all the dances in Florida, and always delivers a good effort. He should be right there turning for home when the real running gets underway.
Selections 8-15-2-19
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