Full card Kentucky Derby 2018 day picks for Churchill Downs
Race 1: 7 Furlongs, 3YO, Optional Claiming
#6 Once on Whiskey gets a favorable outside trip in a race
loaded with inside speed. Look for him to do his best running late and grab the
Derby Day opener. #5 Crosswalk has never been out of the exacta and a repeat of
his last at 7 furlongs makes him a serious threat. #4 Articulator is another
late runner that is a must use in all exotics at a big price.
Selections 6-5-4-7
Race 2: 1 Mile, 3YO & Up, Allowance
In a race with little early speed signed on, expect #6 Big Grey Rocket to flash more early foot than usual on the stretch out from 6 furlongs. His figures fit right in with this field, so if he’s anywhere near his 5-1 morning line it would be a blessing. #2 Summer Luck is a hanger with seconditis that will be overbet, but should be used in exotics with his affinity for hitting the board. #7 Super Derecho has a good shot to hit the board based on where he should be placed early in the race considering the slow projected early pace.
Selections 6-2-7-1
Race 3: 1 1/16 miles, 3YO & Up, Optional Claiming
#6 Irish Freedom’s speed figures have increased every time
he runs 2nd off the layoff. Trainer Brad Cox is 44% when removing
blinkers, so expect him to fire his best shot in his first try outside of
California. #4 Hollywood Handsome also takes the blinkers off after a failed
experiment last out at Keeneland. Expect an effort similar to his first 2
starts of the year. Last year’s Derby runner up, #8 Lookin at Lee is looking to
improve on 3 below average efforts to start the year. He will be over bet in
the win pool, but must be included in exotics with his plodding running style.
Selections 6-4-8-2
Race 4: 1 Mile Turf, 3YO & Up, Md
Sp Wt
#9 Irish Territory took a pretty
good bump going into the first turn last out off an 8-month layoff, which could
explain his flat late run. I’m willing to give him a second chance, since he
will be twice the price for hall of fame trainer, Bill Mott. #2 Midnight Tea
Time has a similar profile to the top pick. Wide, troubled and he caught a slow
pace in his first start as a three-year-old after debuting last summer at
Saratoga. #1 Headsail debuts for trainer Helen Pitts, who does a nice job with
limited stock. The dam has gotten all 6 of her progeny to the winner’s circle,
with 3 of them winning on grass.
Selections 9-2-1-10
Race 5: 1 Mile, 3YO & Up, Optional
Claiming
#9 Dazzling Gem has a great outside
draw with a plethora of front runners drawn into the inside. The cutback to one
turn should also emphasize his closing kick into a hot pace. #8 McCraken should
also get a nice stalking trip, but trainer Wilkes isn’t known for his layoff
runners firing fresh. This could be a prep for stakes races down the road (Met
Mile or Stephen Foster?). #6 Behavior Bias hasn’t had success going this far
yet, but is a runner that is in career form and must be respected.
Selections 9-8-6-1
Race 6: 7 Furlongs, 4YO & Up
Fillies/Mares, Humana Distaff Stakes (G1)
#5 Lewis Bay fell just short in a
blanket finish when drawing the rail and encountering late traffic trouble
against many of these. A cleaner trip will get her the money today. #2 Salty ran Friday in the La Troienne. Therefore, my second choice is #4 Skye Diamonds. The pace scenario is favorable, she’s been training well for
this spot and picks up Mike Smith. #3 Ivy Bell has taken her game to another
level after entering the Pletcher barn. She could be the forgotten horse in the
wagering with all the star power in here.
Selections 5-4-3-8
Race 7: 1 Mile Turf, 4YO & Up
Fillies/Mares, Distaff Turf Mile (G2)
In a completely wide open race, I’d recommend grabbing a mint julep, but for this exercise I’ll take #11 La Coronel for the simple fact that she looks like she’ll be close a slow pace and get a jump on the late runners. #3 Dream Awhile is a light on speed figures, but Irad Ortiz picks this mount over #9 On Leave, who is another contended that must be included.
Selections 11-3-9-6
Race 8: 7 Furlongs, 4YO & Up, Churchill
Downs Stakes (G2)
#5 Outplay comes off a top notch
effort after cutting back to sprinting. Look for him to sit off the #2 & #3
and kick clear before the deep closers make their moves. #10 Awesome Slew is
going to be tough if he chooses this spot over the Alysheba Stakes on Friday. #7 Limousine Liberal took this race last year by a head over Awesome Slew at 13-1.
He’s a course/distance specialist and must be included in all exotics.
Selections 5-10-7-3
Race 9: 1 1/16 Miles Turf, 3YO, American
Turf Stakes (G2)
#1 Speed Franco is the lone front
runner in the field. Look for him to be sent from the rail and try to take them
coast to coast at a square price. #10 Maraud should also be forwardly placed,
so expect him to rebound off his subpar effort last out. #3 Threeandfourpence
returns to his preferred surface after trying the UAE Derby last out. Two
starts back he fought Derby contender Mendelssohn to the wire over a synthetic
surface.
Selections 1-10-3-6
Race 10: 1 Mile, 3YO, Pat Day Mile (G3)
#5 Mississippi ran a credible 3rd last out in the
Florida Derby and prior to that he gave Noble Indy quite a tussle. Retains the
services of Leparoux and should enjoy the cut back to a 1-turn mile. #1 National Flag was ultra-impressive when exploding in the lane to take the Bay
Shore at Aqueduct last out. The stretch out to a mile should be no problem, but
the rail post position is a little worrisome. #8 Mask has done no wrong in 2
starts for trainer Chad Brown. He’s already proven at the distance, but faces
his toughest challenge to date.
Selections 5-1-8-12
Race 11: 1 1/8 Miles Turf, 4 &
Up, Turf Classic Stakes (G1)
#9 Yoshida burst on the 3-year-old
turf scene last year, and looks to improve upon that campaign in his seasonal
debut at a huge price. #10 Beach Patrol took his game to a new level when
stretched out to 12 furlongs last year, but at nine furlongs his speed figures
are equal to other contenders. Willing to bet against at a short price. #5 Channel Maker is another for Bill Mott that retains Castellano and must be
included at a price.
Selections 9-10-5-1
Race 12: 1 1/4 Miles, 3YO, Kentucky Derby (G1)
#7 Justify is an absolute man
among boys. He owns the fastest speed figures by far, and hasn’t given the
impression that 10 furlongs will be a problem. In addition, he appears to not
be a need the lead type of runner. The “Apollo Curse” will be broken this year.
If Justify wasn’t a freak, #11 Bolt d’Oro would be a clear favorite. While he
hasn’t crossed the wire first in either start this year, the multiple Grade 1
winner has run figures this year that are faster than most everyone in the
field. #9 Hofburg has shown his hand this week by training fabulously under the
Twin Spires. He looks like he’s peaking at the right moment and can definitely
improve off his Florida Derby effort.
Selections 7-11-9-5
Here are my suggested Kentucky Derby trifecta plays!
Race 13: 1 1/16 Miles, 3YO, Optional
Claiming
#11 King Zachary was well bet in
the Wood Memorial off his maiden score. Though overmatched, he made a good
account of himself. He’ll sit a great trip off of a few horses on the rail that
have early speed. #3 Last Bad Habit was a flashy maiden winner last out when
going a route for the first time. He’s a major threat that should be included
in all exotic plays. #9 Regal Quality goes for Pletcher/Johnny V and should
improve off a troubled trip last out.
Selections 11-3-9-10
Race 14: 1 Mile, 3YO & Up, Md Sp
Wt
#4 Corot should improve second off
the layoff when moving out to a mile. 2 nice works over the track since his
last effort indicate that he’s ready to go. #10 Making a Marc drew outside in
his last two starts, and overcame a mound of traffic last out when a good 2nd.
Must be included in all wagers and will be a square price. #2 Mr. McFadden is a $250,000 purchase that goes out for Kenny McPeek. While not known for winning with
debut types, McPeek is 47% in the money with runners making their first start
at a mile or further.
Selections 4-10-2-6