Breeeder's Cup Distaff Showdown

Championships are settled on the field, last night’s World Series is exhibit A, and horse racing is no different. Though Untapable has the 3-year-old championship wrapped up regardless of what happens in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, the Eclipse Award for the older filly and mare division is still up in the air.

Divisional leader Close Hatches has two challengers to the Eclipse Award, Belle Gallantey and Iotapa. Close Hatches has a 2-0 lead head-to-head against Belle Gallantey and has never faced Iotapa, but should either spring the mild upset on Friday evening, they would tie Close Hatches with three Grade 1 victories on the year, with the final coming on racing’s most important field of play.

Here’s a look how the Distaff should play out.

In the field of 12, four of the runners need to set a nice controlled pace in order to beat a field of this caliber, which should equate to a quick early pace. Iotapa was taken out her game plan when breaking slowly last out in the Zenyatta Stakes (Gr. I) at Santa Anita, so expect jockey Joe Talamo to get the four-year-old Afleet Alex filly out of the gate quickly and immediately into the race.

It will be difficult for her to clear the field and get to rail, because directly to her left will be the Zenyatta pace maker, Tiz Midnight, who ran the first six furlongs of the mile and one-sixteenth contest in 1:10 1/5 last out.

Though Belle Gallantey has rated slightly off the pace when defeating weaker competition, both her Grade 1 victories came while setting uncontested early leads (Delaware Handicap and Beldame).

Ria Antonia dueled Close Hatches into defeat last out in the Spinster Stakes (Gr. I) at Keeneland Race Course when adding blinkers. Trainer Tom Amoss has gone on record saying that his filly does her best running when forwardly placed, so expect her to challenge for the early lead.

Kentucky Oaks heroine and likely favorite Untapable should sit a nice trip just off the leaders in fourth or fifth, along with Close Hatches. Both are drawn outside and should let the front runners go to the lead while they draft over, trying to establish good position going into the first turn. Close Hatches has been doing a lot of her running on the front end this year, but she was a game runner-up in last year’s Distaff when running from off the pace. Expect her to revert back to her old style with all the speed drawn inside.

The top two choices have been training well, and appear to be coming into the race in optimal condition. Though Close Hatches was a dull fourth last out at odds of 1/5, take note that of trainer Bill Mott’s five Distaff wins only one of them won their final prep before the Breeders’ Cup (Royal Delta 2012).

It’s difficult to get a gage on foreign entrants Valiant Emilia and L’Amour de Ma Vie. The former has a sparkling record on dirt (23-11-3-3), but with earnings of $81,667 to say this is a monumental class hike would be an understatement for the Peruvian invader. The latter has never raced on dirt, is out of a turf sire (Dansili) and has only two minor handicap wins on Polytrack in France (though she won a Group 2 on turf at Meydan in February).

Late runners Don’t Tell Sophia, Unbridled Forever and Stanwyck should be trailing early and moving fastest of all at the end. Don’t Tell Sophia won the Spinster last out when the hot early pace duel between Ria Antonia and Close Hatches fizzled out. Unbridled Forever appears well overmatched in here, but trainer Dallas Stewart has run second in the last two Kentucky Derbies with horses that appeared overmatched at astronomical odds. Stanwyck hails from the connections that brought us Zenyatta. Though Stanwyck is not as prolific, she has a similar running style and has hit the board in all four tries at Santa Anita.

The way the race is setting up it looks as if either Untapable or Close Hatches will get the job done. They are the fastest horses in the race and should get the best trips. One or both will get first jump on the deep closers and roll by the pacesetters at the top of the stretch. If I can only pick one, I would lean towards Close Hatches due to trainer Bill Mott’s success in this race.

I will use my top two selections in the late pick 4, and wheel Stanwyck in second and third in trifectas, and in the fourth spot of superfectas. Here’s some examples.

10,11/6/ALL

10,11/ALL/6

10,11/10,11/ALL/6

10,11/ALL/10,11/6

Good luck and happy Breeders Cup!