Breeders' Cup Satuday analysis, expert picks

First post on Breeders' Cup Saturday at Churchill Downs is 10:45 a.m. ET. The championship action begins with Race 3 and runs through Race 11, the Classic. Here's a look at my top selections for each event:

Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint

#13 Marley's Freedom drew a wonderful outside post with a handful of speedballs to her inside. She's owes the best speed figures in here, and her stalking style fits this perfectly. Look for her to extend her winning streak to five races. #5 Golden Mischief won the local prep in a blanket finish at Keeneland last month when taking the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (G2). She's worked beautifully for this spot and is 3-for-3 when second off the layoff. #14 Shamrock Rose upset Keeneland's seven-furlong Raven Run (G2) against 3=years-olds last out. She's a little light on speed figures, but is improving and can hit the board at a big price.

Selections 13-5-14-6

Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint

#11 World of Trouble is undefeated since switching to the grass in the summer. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. gets off the likely favorite Disco Partner to ride here. The son of Kantharos won twice on wet ground, but faces elders for the first time. #6 Wildcat Heir is stablemates with the top pick, but has a contrasting running style. He's a big closer that runs best off a layoff and should be included in all exotics at double-digit odds. #8 Chanteline is a 6-year-old mare in career-best form. Her highest Brisnet figure came over soft going, making her another to include at long odds in a wide-open race. 

Selections 11-6-8-5

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

To many, this looks like a two-horse race between #10 Catalina Cruiser and #1 City of Light from a speed figure standpoint. Both rate a good chance, but if they get into a speed duel, look for #6 Seeking the Soul to run by in the late stages. Catalina Cruiser is wickedly talented, but light on experience. He's a must-use in exotics, but looks to be over-bet given his seasoning. #9 Great Expectations was third behind the top pick last out. He should improve off his last race following a six-month break.

Selections 6-10-9-1

Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf

#10 Magic Wand and #6 Sistercharlie both have rabbits in this race to ensure a quick early pace. The nod goes to Magic Wand due to her better price and success against top flight competition beyond the 11-furlong trip. Sistercharlie is a major player, but recently missed a brief period of training time due to illness, so proceed with caution. #3 Wild Illusion is your likely favorite based on her win in France last out over Magic Wand, but could be over bet due to the caliber of today's field. 

Selections 10-6-3-1

Breeders’ Cup Sprint

#9 Roy H is the defending champion and once again has a good outside draw to get a feel for what the other speed horses are doing early. A repeat of his last will be land him in the winner's circle, regardless of how the others run. If #5 Imperial Hint does not get the early lead, he's shown a new dimension this year by stalking the early leaders. Look for him to sit just off of #2 Promises Fulfilled early, take over turning for home and attempt to hold off Roy H and the others.

Selections 9-5-2-8

Breeders’ Cup Mile

As is the case in most years, this year's version is again wide open, so any correct opinion should be well rewarded. #3 Happily hasn't won a race yet this year, but has faced Europe's best every time out. Three-year-old fillies have a good track record in this race, so look for her to lay mid-pack, save ground with her inside draw and pounce on the front runners turning for home. #7 Expert Eye is trained by the legendary Sir Michael Stoute, who tends to only send his most well-intended horses. He has very good tactical speed, which is typically a key component in the formula past winners have used in this race. #11 Lightning Spear ran in all the big races in Europe. His connected have pointed him for this spot for months, so he'll be a well-conditioned horse to include in exotics at a big price. 

Selections 3-7-11-13

Breeders’ Cup Distaff

In a showdown between the last two Kentucky Oaks winners, #2 Abel Tasman will need to rebound from a dismal effort in the prep for this. She must answer the question of which Abel Tasman will show up, but if it is the summertime version, the rest of the field will be running for second. #7 Midnight Bisou runs her best races when coming from off the pace, rather than stalking the leaders. With a quick pace projected, she will get an optimum situation to close. #9 Wow Cat was sharp in victory last out when taking the Beldame Stakes (G1). Another that would like a quick pace, look for her to have a live upset chance. 

Selections 2-7-9-11

Breeders’ Cup Turf

#2 Enable is a deserving favorite, and rightly so based on all she's done, but no Arc winner has won the Turf, so the environment is ripe to pick against her. #12 Waldgeist is the most likely winner if Enable slips up, though she beat him in the Arc about two lengths. In that race, he was at the back of the pack with a lot of traffic to navigate and only the length of the stretch in which to do it. #5 Magical was also behind the Queen in the Arc, but followed that up with a victory on British Champions Day. This is a similar path Found took in 2015 when defeating Arc winner Golden Horn in this race for the same connections. 

Selections 12-2-5-1

Breeders’ Cup Classic

In the most wide-open Classic in recent memory, #6 McKinzie is a tepid pick. He delivered a powerhouse performance off a six-month break. Most would worry about a bounce off such a fast race, but he showed no signs of slowing down in the morning following that effort. #14 Accelerate will be a lukewarm favorite for a trainer that hasn't won a Breeders' Cup race in 41 tries entering Saturday. A stalker type, Accelerate is proven at 10 furlongs, but will have to sit further off the pace than he's ever done before. #7 West Coast cut out wicked fractions in his first race off a six-month break. He has every right to improve off that layoff, but take note, jockey Mike Smith is taking the mount on the top pick rather than staying with last year's Classic third-place finisher.

Selections 6-14-7-10